The idea was certainly correct last week: chaos would reign. And reign it did! We got a decent chunk of it, but unfortunately the Eagles had other ideas with a wildly unnecessary blocked field goal returned to the house that blew what should have been an easy cover for Los Angeles. Of course, the Jets needed the exact same thing to cover, so it may be a touch unfair to complain. Still, if you had the Rams, as we did in this spot last week, I’m sorry — no one deserves that.
Unfortunately, the Titans couldn’t get there for us and, even more unfortunately, they profile as a possible live dog this week as well. I’m just not sure I can go back to that well once again. Fortunately, the player props and touchdown scorers made up for any bad beats or drowning dogs on the ATS side with a prop sweep and both Nico Collins and George Pickens finding the end zone.
Week 3 ATS: 2-3
Week 3 Player Props: 2-0
Week 3 Touchdowns: 2-1
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We’re getting a little less dirty in Week 4 than we did in Week 3, but we’re definitely dodging some of the big chalk in the Chargers, Texans and Packers. All three teams scare me a bit considering how easy of picks they appear to be at the current lines. Instead, we’re focusing on teams we (sort of) trust in good spots. For all of my picks — plus a slew of great insight from other experts — make sure to join SportsLine and turn on alerts.
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Below, we’ve got my five favorite bets of the week, the three teams that are terrifying me, a couple player props I love for this weekend and my best bets for anytime touchdown scorers. Let’s get into some NFL betting.
Best bets
Rams -3.5 vs. Colts
Right back to the well, baby! The Colts are the darling of the NFL at the moment, and based on the early movement for this line, they look like they should be a pretty popular bet, especially with the hook still hanging out there on this spread. If you like Indy, I’d go now, as it looks like a flat +/-3 could pop up. I don’t have the luxury of waiting for it, but I’m not particularly worried, as I think the Rams are very capable of winning this game by double digits.
That’s nothing against Daniel Jones (a.k.a. Indiana Jones), who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. But the Rams are clearly capable of jumping all over an opponent, and I think they come out fired up after caving to the Eagles late in Week 3 and force the Colts out of the frontrunning position they’ve held for most of the season, save a couple deficits against the Broncos. The Rams held Saquon Barkley to less than three yards a carry last week. If they do anything resembling that against Jonathan Taylor and make the Colts one-dimensional, I think the Rams can run away with this game.
Lions -10 vs. Browns
It’s a little scary to lay the lumber here with the Lions against a Browns team that proved quite frisky as a massive underdog against an NFC North opponent last week, but the Lions and Packers are very different offensively: Green Bay can’t really get going if Josh Jacobs isn’t carving out chunks on the ground, while Detroit is very capable of opening things up via the air and then leaning on the ground game to close things out. The Lions also know what a gift Cleveland gave them by beating the Packers, as Detroit’s now firmly back in the mix for the division despite the ugly Week 1 loss at Green Bay.
Jared Goff and Co. have looked fantastic on offense the last two weeks, and even though Cleveland presents a stiff test defensively, I think the Lions at home will keep their foot on the gas. There’s not really a world where Joe Flacco/Dillon Gabriel mount a miraculous comeback on the road, in my opinion.
Falcons +1 vs. Commanders
This feels like a bit of an overreaction to the Falcons’ disastrous Week 3 in Carolina, doesn’t it? People were fawning over Atlanta after the Falcons kept the Vikings out of the end zone just a week prior, and if ever there was a bounce-back spot for Michael Penix Jr. and this offense, it’s at home against a team that conceded three touchdowns to Tre Tucker and allowed receivers to run wide open versus Green Bay in Week 2 (the exception to the Commies’ defensive struggles was Russell Wilson and the Giants and, well, you know…).
Terry McLaurin likely won’t play in this game, Bill Croskey-Merritt missed practice on Thursday and isn’t looking good, and I get an inkling Jayden Daniels won’t suit up either, even though he keeps saying he’s OK. The Commanders believe they can survive with Marcus Mariota under center, so they’re not going to force Daniels on the field if they can help it. It’s very possible the Falcons are favored by kickoff and, quite honestly, I think they should be at home, as it’s indoors in a game where they’ll have spent the week licking their wounds.
Raiders ML (-113) vs. Bears
It looks like the market is seeing some buy back on the Raiders here after an overcorrection following Chicago’s romp of Dallas in Week 3. I think that’s the right move. Dallas’ defense is Swiss freaking cheese, and while the Raiders aren’t elite on that side of the ball, they can at least get some pressure on Caleb Williams and probably won’t let the Bears dial up a slow-motion flea flicker that goes completely uncontested into the end zone.
Given all of Ashton Jeanty’s struggles, I’d guess one, he’s sick of hearing it and two, Pete Carroll will tell Chip Kelly to cut Geno Smith loose against a secondary that’s still bereft of its best players with a (hopefully) healthy Brock Bowers. (Reminder: the Bears just let Jake Ferguson catch 13 passes.)
If the Raiders attack the Bears’ secondary early on drives and get a few stops, they can lean into Jeanty in the second half and force Williams into a ton of dropbacks and potentially some turnovers.
Chiefs +2.5 vs. Ravens
If you’re interested in riding along with this matchup, you can probably wait and see if a KC +3 pops its little head out of the proverbial hole. I’m not sure it matters, though, as I’m backing the Chiefs to win the game outright.
Xavier Worthy was a full participant in practice on Thursday, which means Kansas City gets a massive speed upgrade on offense, one they’ve been sorely needing the last few weeks. Tyquan Thornton’s been a really nice surprise, but moving him from “alpha receiver” to someone who can be a deep weapon and has to be somewhat ignored because of Worthy’s presence should be a massive upgrade. The Chiefs also should be able to run against a ravaged Ravens front that just got gashed by the Lions.
One of these teams will be 1-3 after Sunday, which is wild to think about. Given the homefield advantage and Patrick Mahomes realizing how big this win would be, I’ll back Mahomes getting points at Arrowhead.
Player props
Omarion Hampton Over 65.5 rush yards
Omarion Hampton isn’t exactly underknown by any stretch, but in the wake of Najee Harris’ season-ending Achilles tear, he saw a massive usage spike in Week 3, running the ball 19 times and catching six passes from Justin Herbert. That should continue into Week 4 and the matchup is choice. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Chargers are using gap blocking on 57% of his runs this season, and the Giants are giving up 6.7 yards per carry to gap-blocking runs on defense. You can still find some 63.5 and 64.5 lines out there, too. I would expect this number to close in the 70s and for Hampton to be DFS chalk this week.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 65.5 rush/rec yards
Anyone who watched the Pats-Steelers game — or anyone who can read a box score — can probably figure out the Patriots should have blown out the Steelers in Week 3. I don’t recall the last time before Sunday I saw a team turn the ball over twice inside an opponent’s 1-yard line, but the Pats managed to pull it off thanks to a Drake Maye interception and a Rhamondre Stevenson fumble. The latter got the Pats starter, who’s had his hands coated in Crisco all season, benched. That means we’re about to get “The TreVeyon Henderson Game,” where the explosive rookie out of Ohio State is the featured offensive piece for the Patriots against a questionable Panthers defense. I’d ladder this up to 100, honestly.
Puka Nakua Over 7.5 receptions
Davante Adams is kind of banged up, and Puka Nacua’s usage is ridiculous at this point. He has received 15, nine and 11 targets through the Rams’ first three games, he catches everything and whether Los Angeles is up or down, he’ll be the focal point of the offense. I know you can’t make the line too much higher, but this feels like a layup for one of the best receivers in football right now and a guy who just loads up on receptions.
Anytime TD scorer props
Ray Davis anytime TD
Man, I love this number for Davis, who is the guy when James Cook gets pulled in the event of a Bills blowout. This is the biggest spread of the season, and the Saints are in a disastrous spot traveling from Seattle after a blowout to play a Bills team that is humming on offense but banged up on defense. If Buffalo gets a big first half lead — and I expect they will — I like them -9.5 on the first half line.
We should see Sean McDermott yank a bunch of players and feed the backups in the ground game. That should result in ample carries for Davis, and at more than 3-1, this is a borderline must take.
Nico Collins anytime TD
This is not a typo, folks — we are running it back, especially with L’Jarius Sneed running his mouth and saying “who” when asked about his thoughts on Nico Collins. Collins clearly wasn’t pleased in his response, and no matter how much Titans coaches try and jam the toothpaste back in the bottle, they’re probably banged on this one. Collins is going to find the end zone on a deep shot, and backing his Over props is perfectly fine as well.
Xavier Worthy anytime TD