Welcome to the latest edition of the Newsweek Sports Betting newsletter, which you can start receiving in your inbox by subscribing here. Right now, you’ll hear from us three times a week:
NFL weekend preview (every Friday morning at 8 a.m. ET)
College Football ATS picks (every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET)
NFL ATS picks (every Sunday morning at 10 a.m. ET)
Below is this morning’s edition, which is available to subscribers only.
Can we just have Thursday Night Football feature two NFC West teams every week for the rest of the season?? After Seahawks-Cardinals came down to the wire on TNF in Week 4, last night’s 49ers-Rams matchup delivered another memorable ending to kickstart Week 5.
Hand up: Unfortunately, I was among a number of bettors who never saw the injury-ravaged 49ers keeping last night’s game terribly competitive, much less winning it. Hopefully, amid a weekend that is light on blockbuster matchups in either college football or the NFL, we can make up for a rough start last night.
As always, before we go any further, please hit the link below for a quick look at my early thoughts on all 14 NFL games taking place this weekend.
Oh, and this feels like a good place to say happy birthday to my Dad, who turns 71 today. 🍻, old man!
NFL Week 5 Early Picks Against The Spread
A 📬 (Mailbag) Is Born?
I’d love to hear from you, the reader of this email.
Welcome to the first edition of this newsletter’s new Question Of The Week section. I’m hoping to come up with a clever title here — one that tops “Question of the Week” — soon, but for now, that will have to do.
Let’s start with a simple one: What has been the best bet you’ve placed on the NFL this year?*
Please send in your replies by e-mail, and feel free to ask me a question or two of your own — response guaranteed!
The best answers will be showcased here next week.
*It can be a wager that has already cashed or a high-upside futures bet you’re feeling good about.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Odds, Best Bets
The matchup: Buccaneers at Seahawks (-3)* — 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
I realize Broncos vs. Eagles (or maybe Commanders vs. Chargers) is probably the highlight of Week 5 for most NFL fans.
But my favorite matchup this weekend is the one between NFC dark horses Tampa Bay and Seattle. Before previewing this contest, it’s interesting to note how oddsmakers currently view the NFC.
In addition to the Eagles and the Lions, the Packers, Rams and 49ers enter Week 5 as legit threats to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 60 (each of those teams is currently 10-to-1 or shorter to win the NFC).
After that, the Commanders, Bucs and Seahawks form a group of second-tier contenders, with NFC winner odds ranging from +1200 to +1700 across the board.
Based on what I’ve seen so far this season, the Bucs and Seahawks both appear capable of not only making the playoffs, but also doing some damage if/when they get there.
On Sunday, with two starting O-linemen and star WR Mike Evans out — and starting RB Bucky Irving among a handful of key players who are questionable — the Bucs face a massive challenge. The Seahawks are the healthier team, they’re playing at home and they should be fresh after playing on TNF in Week 4.
I won’t have a strong lean on the spread until Sunday, when we will know more about who will be available for both of these teams (several starters on the Seattle D are also currently listed as questionable), but right now, the Under is hard to resist.
Remember, the Bucs gained 149 yards on two long TD catches vs. the Eagles. Their other 66 snaps went for just 227 total yards of offense (3.4 yards per play) if we exclude Emeka Egbuka’s 77-yard TD catch and Bucky Irving’s 76-yard TD out of the backfield.
Best bet: Under 44.5 (best available odds: -105 at FD)
*The Bucs were catching 3.5 points early this week, but at FD and DK, they’re now just a 3-point underdog.
🔥Take Of The Week: Can The Ravens Recover?
First of all, yes, I’m aware that no good hot take features a question mark.
But since I’m not positive that the Ravens will be unable to climb out of their current hole, I decided to leave myself a sliver of wiggle room, at least for now.
Right now, though, there’s a lot more cause for concern than reason for optimism when it comes to the team that has dominated the AFC North the last few years.
Obviously, the biggest headline this week is Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury. Personally, though, I’m worried about this team — even in the best-case scenario where Jackson’s hamstring heals quickly.
The absences of D-lineman Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy were sorely felt on Monday Night Football against Detroit back in Week 3. Those two were also missed in Week 4 vs. the Chiefs.
Unfortunately for Baltimore, Madubuike is now on IR, and a whopping seven (!) other starting Ravens defenders are either questionable or doubtful for this weekend’s matchup vs. Houston. Related: the Texans are now favored by as many as 2.5 points at FanDuel after the Ravens opened as 3.5-point favorites.
On offense, Baltimore could be down not only Jackson, but also left tackle Ronnie Stanley and fullback Patrick Ricard this weekend.
A lot of people are nevertheless holding out hope for a team that moved the ball at will against the Bills and Lions (and has played a schedule that can only get easier going forward).
While I was as high on the Ravens as anyone entering this year, and I would have never believed I would have voluntarily written (and bet) the following by early October …
Right now, I recommend betting on either the Ravens to miss the playoffs (available at +235 at FanDuel) and/or the 3-1 Steelers to win the AFC North (available at +180 at FD) before Sunday’s clash with the Texans.
Houston finally looked competent last weekend (albeit against the lowly Titans), and it will surely test the ailing Baltimore run D after running the ball 35 times against Tennessee a week ago.
This is going to be an uphill climb even if the Ravens beat Houston this weekend. Their upcoming matchups against the Rams (Week 6) and Bears (Week 8) will not be gimmes, either, unless this shorthanded defense improves substantially, and quickly.
I’m not quite ready to rule out a turnaround by one of the preseason Super Bowl favorites, but I’m also not holding my breath.
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