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Enduring economic uncertainty froze many U.S. employers’ staffing plans over the past several months, with most limiting hiring to only replacing departing workers. New data from job posting platform ZipRecruiter suggests those defensive stands by companies may soon be abandoned in favor increasing headcounts again. While many indicators suggest business leaders have been preparing for an economic downturn since May, the newly released 2025 ZipRecruiter Annual Employer Survey indicates many now believe the time has come to grow again. Among the reasons for that apparent shift is the growing belief that many uncertainties that arose from myriad disruptions — including import tariffs, mass deportations shrinking the workforce, the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on jobs, and the ongoing government shutdown — no longer seem as likely to result in shrinking economic growth. As a result, ZipRecruiter’s poll of over 1,500 hiring professionals indicate their months-long hesitancy to expand headcounts is now fading, with 63 percent of respondents saying they plan on hiring within the next year. And in good news for recent college graduates who’ve found themselves all but locked out of the job market recently, over 31 percent of participating HR officials said they’d resume filling entry-level positions whose tasks many companies are automating with AI. In other words, the hiring stagnation and tightening labor market that set in nearly half a year ago may soon be broken open by robust business recruitment. Featured Video An Inc.com Featured Presentation “Our research suggests ‘The Great Freeze’ is giving way to ‘The Great Thaw,’ and the most prepared employers are already taking action,” said ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud in comments accompanying the survey’s results. “We’re seeing businesses ramp up entry-level hiring, drop degree requirements, and incorporate skills assessments into their process. The organizations that adapt to new technologies, prioritize skills, and invest in their workforce will gain a competitive edge in securing top talent as the market shifts.” In stark contrast to the “Great Resignation” trend of 2021-2023 — when employers increased salary levels to retain or recruit staff amid spiking turnover rates — the “Great Freeze” Bachaud refers to apparently allowed companies to offset the effects of that earlier period, and consolidate internally. For example, employee turnover rates that hit a dizzying 177 percent in 2023 plunged to just 50 percent last year. Just over 30 percent of survey respondents credited that stability to external factors like decreasing hiring trends that have made people think twice about giving up their jobs in search of something better. As a probable consequence of that worker wariness, 57.3 percent of survey participants said their companies had avoided increasing base pay for new hires over the past year, while 45.8 percent said they’d kept salaries flat even for their existing employees. But those benefits of extremely low hiring rates amid uncertainty may prove short-lived as businesses shift from defense to offense. Because in addition to the nearly two-thirds of HR managers saying their companies will kick recruitment back into higher gear over the next year, 76 percent of respondents said retaining current employees will be a main priority. But those staffing objectives may again require employers to raise salaries to fulfill them. Not only will newly recruited job candidates be seeking more money, but resumed hiring across the economy will allow existing staff to similarly demand raises — or strike out for companies providing those. What’s more, there are signs that’s already happening among the most valued workers, even as the majority of employees cling tightly to their jobs until the labor market opens up again. “There’s a growing gap between what workers expect to earn and what employers are willing to pay, causing businesses to lose top candidates,” the ZipRecruiter report said. “One-third (33.6 percent) of employers were prevented from hiring because candidates demanded higher pay than they could offer. And four in ten employers (39.7 percent) say candidates rejected their offers due to low pay… As the market thaws and pay increases resume, transparency will be the key differentiator in attracting talent.” What other changes did Ziprecruiter identify in respondent replies that similarly look likely to accelerate into 2026? For starters, 38 percent of respondents said their companies had already dropped requirements that applicants hold college degrees. Instead, their priorities are increasingly shifting toward people with particular job skills and experience. Meanwhile, over half of respondents said use of AI in their companies had created, rather than destroyed jobs, with the tech also being increasingly deployed to evaluate candidates for those openings. Indeed, 47 percent of hiring managers from small businesses reported they’d adopted AI into their recruiting procedures, surpassing bigger enterprises doing the same by 12 percentage points. “This difference is rooted in perception,” the report said. “(O)nly 67.6 percent of enterprise businesses think AI can streamline recruiting, compared to nearly three in four (73.7 percent) of SMBs.”
