By Anna Commander

Copyright newsweek

A new poll from Suffolk University shows Democratic mayoral nominee and New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani up 20 points over former Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Why It Matters

With just weeks until New York City’s mayoral election on November 4, several reputable polls show Mamdani, a Democratic socialist and first-time citywide candidate, holding a sizable lead over his rivals.

His commanding position could mark a significant shift in city politics, especially considering the primary defeat of Cuomo and the presence of high-profile opponents such as incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

The race’s outcome will likely influence policy priorities on critical issues for New Yorkers, from affordability and crime to the city’s relationship with President Donald Trump and the national Democratic Party.

What To Know

In the poll, Mamdani has 45 percent of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 25 percent, Sliwa’s 9 percent and Adams’ 8 percent.

The University’s CityView poll surveyed 500 likely election voters in The Big Apple and was taken from September 16 to September 18. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4. percent.

The survey shows that the top issue for New Yorkers is affordability at 21 percent, followed by crime at 20 percent, economy and jobs at 14 percent and housing at 9 percent.

Similar margins appear in other recent surveys, such as a Quinnipiac University Poll showing Mamdani at 45 percent, Cuomo at 23 percent, Sliwa at 15 percent and Adams at 12 percent among likely voters.

Polls suggest Mamdani has built on his unexpected victory over Cuomo in June’s Democratic primary, and recent market-based odds put his chance of winning as high as 88 percent, according to Polymarket. However, when major rivals are removed from hypothetical matchups, Mamdani’s lead narrows, especially against Cuomo, indicating anti-Mamdani voters could consolidate if the race dynamics shift.

New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani holds a campaign event with the health care workers union on September 24 outside St. Barnabas Hospital in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

What People Are Saying

Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email Wednesday: “Mamdani has a solid lead and Cuomo has only two hopes. One is that Mamdani will perform badly in the debates in October — something close to a disaster. The other is that barring a poor performance by Cuomo in the debates, he will have a chance of winning if both Sliwa and Adams drop out. There is nothing Cuomo can do himself alone.”

What Happens Next

The New York City mayoral election is set for November 4. While Mamdani leads by double digits in most major polls, potential shifts could arise if key foes withdraw or endorsements change the election’s landscape.

Mamdani has still yet to receive endorsements from key Democratic leaders like U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, but did land New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s backing.