Copyright Newsweek
Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill is narrowly in the lead in the New Jersey gubernatorial race but her Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli is catching up, according to a poll. According to polling by KAConsulting, while Sherrill is three percentage points ahead of Ciattarelli, her lead has declined from July when the pollsters put Sherrill ahead by five percentage points. Newsweek reached out to Sherrill and Ciattarelli by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours. Why It Matters New Jersey, along with Virginia, is one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year. The candidates are competing to replace Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is reaching the end of his term limit. Republicans have not won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey since 2013 and have voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. But the GOP has seen success in the state in recent years. President Donald Trump increased his vote share by 10 points in 2024. This was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades. Meanwhile, Sherrill's campaign hit a road block when largely unredacted military records about the candidate's time in the Naval Academy were released by the National Archives, which included disciplinary information and reportedly revealed that Sherrill was barred from walking at her 1994 U.S. Naval Academy graduation for declining to inform on classmates involved in a cheating scandal. What To Know The new poll found that 47 percent of people would vote for Sherrill, who previously worked in the navy and as a federal prosecutor, while 44 percent would vote for Ciattarelli, a former New Jersey state representative. In their July survey, the pollsters found that the same proportion of people indicated they supported Sherrill. But 42 percent said they would vote for Ciattarelli, so his level of support has increased by two percentage points in the last three months. The poll of 601 registered and likely voters was commissioned by Change NJ, a GOP PAC that is supporting Ciattarelli's campaign and was conducted by KAConsulting, a firm run by Kellyanne Conway, a former Trump adviser. It was conducted between October 15 and 16 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. It comes after polling by Quantus Insights conducted earlier this month found that the Democrat's lead over her Republican rival had declined from +10 percentage points earlier in September to +2 percentage points. But previous polls suggested Sherrill was commanding the support of the electorate. A SurveyUSA poll, released the day after Ciattarelli and Sherrill secured their respective nominations on Wednesday, showed the Democrat leading her GOP rival by 13 percentage points. Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. told Newsweek Sherrill would still likely win: "It's hardly a surprise to see the Ciattarelli PAC publish a poll result in the run-up to early in-person voting showing their candidate gaining in the race," he said. "But the reality is that New Jersey is a longtime Democrat state and it would be a major shock if Mikie Sherrill didn't prevail." "Disquiet with the president, the ongoing legislative shutdown and the continuing economic struggle for average New Jerseyites mean they're likely to stick with the Dems at the head of state government." What People Are Saying Conway said in a statement: "Polls continue to show a tightening margin-of-error race between Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill, and one thing is clear: Sherrill is on her heels and limping to the finish line as controversies surround her. Ciattarelli has the momentum and enthusiasm going into the last days of the campaign." In a post to his social media platform Truth Social on Monday evening, Trump said: "JACK CIATTARELLI IS A WINNER FOR NEW JERSEY! Mikie Sherrill is the exact opposite, a stone cold loser, who will drive your Energy costs through the roof, just like the Democrats are doing all over the Country but, even more so, because she has no understanding of what she is doing. "Put simply, Jack Ciattarelli will bring your Energy costs down to a new low, and Mikie Sherrill will do the exact opposite—Energy costs under her will go up by levels never seen before. Mikie has no clue as to what she is doing. NEW JERSEY, VOTE FOR JACK CIATTARELLI—HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!" Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, in a statement to Newsweek via email on Monday: "New Jerseyans are fed up with Donald Trump’s toxic agenda that is ripping away their health care, causing their utility bills to spike, and destroying jobs, all of which Jack Ciattarelli gave an ‘A’ grade. Meanwhile, on Day One, Mikie Sherrill will declare a State of Emergency on Utility Costs, end the utility rate hikes, and massively expand cheaper and cleaner power generation to build an energy arsenal in New Jersey. Lowering costs is Mikie’s top priority and why she’ll win in November." What Happens Next The election takes place on November 4 and early voting begins on October 22
