Copyright Newsweek
Democratic nominee for New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli are statistically tied nearly a week before the election, a new poll shows. "The last two public polls showed the New Jersey gubernatorial race as a dead heat, but they come from organizations whose results tend to tilt Republican, what election watchers call a house effect," D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek via email on Monday, in part. Why It Matters The race for New Jersey governor is drawing national attention, with Sherrill and Ciattarelli running closer races in recent polls. As one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, the outcome provides an early indication of voter sentiment heading toward the 2026 midterms. A shift in New Jersey—a state traditionally favoring Democrats—could signal broader changes in American political alignments and strategies, influencing both parties on national policy and campaign approaches. What To Know In the poll by co/efficient, Sherrill has 48 percent of the potential vote compared to Ciattarelli's 47 percent. The survey shows five percent remain undecided. The poll surveyed 995 likely voters from October 23 to October 27 and has a 3.27 percent margin of error. The results of the gubernatorial race fall within the margin of error, making Ciattarelli and Sherrill statistically tied. Sherrill has a 44 percent favorability rating versus a 45 percent unfavorable rating. Ciattarelli landed a 46 percent favorable and unfavorable rating. What People Are Saying Trump on Truth Social early Monday: "Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World? VOTE REPUBLICAN for massive Energy Cost reductions, large scale Tax Cuts, and basic Common Sense! Under President Trump, ME, Gasoline will come down to approximately $2 a Gallon, very soon! With the Democrats, you’ll be paying $4, $5, and $6 a Gallon, and your Electric and other Energy costs will, likewise, SOAR." The president concluded, "VOTE REPUBLICAN FOR A GREAT AND VERY AFFORDABLE LIFE. All you’ll get from voting Democrat is unrelentingly High Crime, Energy prices through the roof, men playing in women’s sports, and HEARTACHE!" Sherrill on X on Sunday: "New Jersey is ready to elect a governor who puts the people first, because everyone deserves a fair shot at success. Thank you for having me today, Plainfield. Let’s get to work." D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek via email on Monday: "The last two public polls showed the New Jersey gubernatorial race as a dead heat, but they come from organizations whose results tend to tilt Republican, what election watchers call a house effect. If we're only thinking about the new polling, we have no reason to think the race has changed from two weeks ago, when other public polls were showing Sherrill with a 5-point lead." What Happens Next Election Day in New Jersey is set for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. Both camps are intensifying outreach to swing voters, with the outcome poised to influence the direction of both state and national politics. The campaign’s closing weeks are likely to remain contentious as both sides seek to leverage national political trends and local issues to tip the balance.
