Copyright Newsweek
The New Jersey and surrounding housing markets could be impacted by the potential election of New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani’s policies largely aim to break from establishment norms as a democratic socialist, and specific proposals could lead to real estate disruption. Why It Matters Mamdani has advocated for free city buses and city-owned grocery stores, but his progressive politics have gained the attention of a large portion of voters. Online gambling website Polymarket said in a new report that Mamdani has a large lead over his competitors in the incoming mayoral race. What To Know Real estate brokers have been warning about a potential fallout since Mamdani won the primary, and his policies could affect the housing markets within New Jersey and Connecticut as well. Mamdani’s policy proposals include adding a flat 2 percent tax to New Yorkers who earn above $1 million. He’s also suggested a rent freeze on rent-stabilized apartments and major public housing construction alongside tougher standards for landlords. Since New York City is a top luxury real estate market, these slew of changes could push some buyers outside of the city, making other markets more expensive as a result. However, Hannah Kramer, director of news operations and content strategy at The Real Deal, said in many ways, it’s too early to predict how a Mamdani mayoralty might reshape housing markets. “There are certainly real estate brokers looking to take advantage of the uncertainty, though. We're seeing some agents, particularly in buzzy places like Miami, target their marketing to buyers who are fearful of a progressive shift in New York,” Kramer told Newsweek. “On the rental side, a Mamdani victory isn't likely to decrease rents in New York City – vacancy is low, and we're in desperate need of more supply. It'll take time to build the new housing the city needs, even if the next mayor is able to cut red tape.” In the third quarter of 2025, the top cities for New York City residents looking to move to—but stay within the metro area—were Toms River, NJ; Yonkers, NY; Brick, NJ; Freehold, NJ; and Jersey City, NJ, according to Realtor.com. Meanwhile, the top out-of-metro cities New Yorkers consider moving to are Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Orlando, Myrtle Beach, and Naples, Florida. “The increasing demand for homes in these markets is likely to put upward pressure on home prices,” Realtor.com senior economist Jiayi Xu told Newsweek. “Markets in New Jersey may see the largest impact, as four of the top nearby cities viewed by New Yorkers are located in New Jersey.” What People Are Saying Mamdani said previously: "I've been having a number of conversations with leaders across our party and across the city and state and I've appreciated those conversations with Governor [Kathy] Hochul, with Senator [Chuck] Schumer, with Congressman [Hakeem] Jeffries. They are conversations that have always come back to the importance of affordability in the fight for working New Yorkers." Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: “Simply put, we don't know what actual effects Mamdani's potential election would have on residents in New York and surrounding states. Campaign promises are one thing, but actual implementation is another. Mamdani has made some bold proposals, particularly when it comes to a tax increase on top earners.” “If these proposals become reality, it certainly could lead to the exit of some high-income workers in the city. However, if the opportunities that create those incomes stay within the city, it's also very possible these same individuals will bare the burden of a tax increase and stay. There are so many factors to consider, and we won't really know what those are until we know if they will be implemented.” Nationwide title and escrow expert Alan Chang told Newsweek: “If elected, there may be negative impacts to housing values due to the high likelihood of freezing rents. Rent control is always counterintuitive to housing conditions. The ability to raise rents keeps maintenance and improvements a viable option while freezing rents usually end up forcing less than ideal housing conditions.” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: “The most likely scenario is always somewhere in-between where prices may move higher in spots and fall in others. An example would be Bernie Sanders of Burlington, Vermont where he was mayor between 1981-1989. His tenure did see rising real estate prices, like everywhere else in the country, but there was no runaway housing increase even as he implemented a more socialist agenda such as the Champlain Housing Trust.” What Happens Next Real estate experts continue to largely be against Mamdani and the many policies he’s proposed, which could make a difference at the polls this year. “One thing we can say for sure is that the real estate industry hasn't warmed to Mamdani,” Kramer said. “Cuomo's brought in more than ten times the donations from people in real estate compared to Mamdani. That said, Cuomo's fundraising is still far behind Eric Adams'.”
