NBA MVP has become perhaps the most debated award in sports. It’s perfect fodder for the talking heads on afternoon TV, and the arguments online will get even more nuanced in some corners and a lot stupider in others. The last decade has given us some truly great MVP races, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s narrow victory over Nikola Jokic last year. Both players figure to be in the mix again as the 2025-26 season approaches, but the field is often deeper than initially believed.
There’s a few things a player needs to win NBA MVP. The first is availability, especially now that there’s a 65-game cut-off for award consideration. The next is regular season wins: team success isn’t supposed to factor into individual awards, but the Thunder winning 18 more games than the Nuggets certainly didn’t hurt SGA’s case last year. Beyond that, there are more and better publicly available metrics to evaluate player performance than ever before, and you better grade out near the top of those for serious MVP consideration these days.
With the new season approaching, here are nine players who can win 2026 NBA MVP.
9. Donovan Mitchell, G, Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell actually took a small step back in terms of both usage and production last year, but the Cavs were so dominant during the regular season that it was still enough to earn him First-Team All-NBA honors. Mitchell’s pathway to MVP starts with the Cavs running away with the East (again) while putting up even more convincing numbers. The first thing Mitchell will have to do is catch fire as a shooter: he hit 36.8 percent of his threes on nine attempts per game last year, which is impressive given how tough his shot diet is. To win MVP, though, that will have be at or around 40 percent. Another area to monitor is Mitchell’s rim finishing: last year he only made 60 percent of his shots within three-feet, which was a 10 percentage point drop from his previous three seasons, per basketball-reference. Mastering the dark arts of free throw drawing after a solid-but-unspectacular 7.8 free throw attempts per 100 possessions last year would also help his case. It feels true to me that less Mitchell is probably a good thing for the Cavs again this season, but he still feels like their most likely MVP candidate ahead of a lower-volume scorer in Evan Mobley. MVP is a regular season award, and the Cavs are going to win a lot of regular season games most likely. Mitchell will be their lead engine to some degree, and his MVP case starts there.
8. Anthony Edwards, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
Edwards has been known as one of the league’s most explosive athletes from the moment he became the No. 1 overall pick in 2020. Last season, he also developed into one of the NBA’s best shooters. Edwards made 320 three-pointers last year, more than any other player, and he also led the league in attempts. In the same number of games (79) as the year before, Edwards took 279 more threes than he did the previous season. Knocking down the most valuable shot in basketball at a 39.5 percent clip with the NBA’s highest volume is undeniably impressive, but it also speaks to some of the shooting and spacing concerns on the rest of the roster. It’s hard to see how Edwards has more driving room this year with the Julius Randle/Rudy Gobert front court back for another year, putting extra pressure on his pull-up jumper to sustain. Edwards enters his age-24 season off back-to-back trips to the Western Conference Finals, with a pair of top-7 MVP finishes to boot. Wolves optimism has been a bit dulled this summer after the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and the best way to get over it might be another leap from Ant. Last season was the most efficient scoring year of his career, and he also started to make strides as a decision-maker. Edwards is becoming a more complete player, but for now it’s going to take a lot to go right for him to win MVP.
7. Jalen Brunson, G, New York Knicks
Signing Jalen Brunson has ushered in the Knicks’ greatest run of success since the Patrick Ewing era. In his first three seasons with the team, New York has won four playoff series, including a trip to the conference finals last year. That might seem impressive for a franchise that hasn’t won a championship since 1973, but it’s still not good enough for the Knicks, not when they mortgaged so many future draft and amassed such a high payroll to build this roster. No team in the NBA faces more pressure than New York this season: if they’re ever going to breakthrough in the East, this feels like it has to be the year with Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton both out with torn Achilles tendons. Brunson will be the straw that stirs the drink even if new head coach Mike Brown opts to use him a little differently than Tom Thibodeau did. Since joining New York, Brunson has become the little engine who could: he threads the needle between high usage (29.5 percent) and high efficiency (60.5 percent true shooting) while posting a very good assist rate (32.3) and low turnover rate (10.5 percent). It’s probably in the Knicks’ best interest to get Brunson off the ball a little bit more this year. He’s a much better three-point shooter off the catch (50 percent last season) than off the dribble (32 percent last season), so it’s worth it to see if Mikal Bridges or Karl Anthony-Towns can handle a little more of the playmaking. Brunson’s MVP case needs to start with the Knicks claiming the No. 1 seed while he continues to be one of the best clutch players alive. It feels entirely conceivable those two things could happen. If the Knicks become one of the stories of the season, it isn’t hard to imagine a media push to make this Brunson’s award.
6. Alperen Sengun, C, Houston Rockets
Sengun is my favorite long-shot right now, entering the season with 40000-1 odds to win MVP according to FanDuel. The long odds are understandable: Sengun only has one year of performing like an All-Star, and he’ll need to take an even bigger leap this year to earn MVP consideration. He enters his age-23 season coming off a fabulous run in EuroBasket, where he may have been the best player in a tournament that included Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Houston Rockets were already the No. 2 seed in the West last year, and they got a lot better over the summer by replacing Jalen Green with Kevin Durant (update: Fred VanVleet is now out for the season with a torn ACL, so maybe Houston isn’t any better). It’s not hard to imagine that Houston could be the best team in basketball outside of OKC as Sengun continues to emerge as a true franchise player. The big man made his biggest leap on the defensive end last year, and that will earn him a longer rope with head coach Ime Udoka. The addition of Durant will give Sengun more spacing for his interior scoring, and more assist opportunities for him to kick out to the perimeter. He’s a daring and creative passer who will be a staple on highlight reels all year for his playmaking, and we already know he can put someone on a poster as a dunker. After averaging 19-10-5 last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sengun can raise his game considerably as a scorer and facilitator. If the Rockets are as good as they’re supposed to be, it will be Sengun, not Durant, serving as the engine. After his torrid run at EuroBasket, I’m buying that Sengun is still getting better, maybe even approaching an MVP level with a few breaks.
5. Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs
It seems like it’s only a matter of time before Victor Wembanyama is the best player in the world, and he’s already getting terrifyingly close as he enters this third season. Wembanyama would have won Defensive Player of the Year if not for a blood clot in his shoulder that caused him to miss the second half of the season. With that injury seemingly behind him now, the Spurs star is about to step into the best situation of his pro career with more talent around him than ever before. De’Aaron Fox only played five games with Wemby before his injury, but he gives the Spurs a speedy lead guard with scoring chops to play off his star center’s gravity. No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper should be able to contribute in the backcourt as a rookie, too, the front court depth is also stronger after adding Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk. I’m a bit worried the Spurs’ spacing and shooting will be so bad that it will force Wembanyama to play on the perimeter rather than battling inside where he’s at his best. The guy with an 8-foot wingspan should be standing near the basket as often as possible, not settling for jump shots even if he’s pretty good at making them. Wemby is already a unanimous pick for the best defender alive, and he’s evolving at a rapid rate offensively, too. He’ll probably win a few of these awards before he’s done, but Year 3 might be a little too early even for him.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks
There’s two ways to view the Milwaukee Bucks entering into the season: either this team is doomed to fail as it transitions out of its failed Damian Lillard experiment, or it’s biding time before it can fully reorient around Giannis Antetokounmpo. The East is down, and Milwaukee has the best player in the conference by far. If the Bucks emerge as one of the best teams in the East, Giannis probably deserves MVP consideration by default because it’s hard to imagine anyone else driving their success. Antetokounmpo already has two MVPs to his name as he turns 31 in Dec. He’s been a top-3 player alive for seven straight seasons, a remarkable feat. It doesn’t feel like Giannis is slowing down any time soon as one of the game’s most dominant interior scorers with a newfound mid-range shooting bag to tap into. The Bucks will be so reliant on him to create everything offensively and also carry the defense that I do worry he could wear down a bit with such a big burden on his shoulders. Still, Giannis is pretty much the safest bet in the NBA at this point, an elite player every year who runs through every obstacle put in front of him. The Bucks are likely going to play him as a de facto point guard more than ever before this season, and it will help him put up some huge numbers if he stays healthy. If Giannis has another MVP run left in him, carrying a lifeless Bucks team to success would be a compelling sales pitch.
3. Luka Doncic, G, Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Doncic is ready to show the world how stupid the Dallas Mavericks are for trading him — even if that decision has already worked out unfathomably well for his former franchise. Doncic has been the preseason favorite for MVP the last few years, and now he’s getting a full season with the most glamorous franchise in basketball, plus all the motivation he needs for the best season of his career. Luka has his revenge body ready as he enters his age-26 season, so there’s no need to worry he’ll be playing himself into shape. At his best, Doncic is an elite offense unto himself, an ultra high-usage on-ball creator who blends scoring and playmaking as well as anyone in the league. The Lakers have an improved supporting cast around him with Deandre Ayton counting as an upgrade at center, and a deeper bench that now includes Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia. It sure seems like Doncic will be the Lakers’ leading man this year with LeBron James playing a secondary role as he nears 41 years old, and that should be good for his MVP chances. At the same time, the West is brutal and I’m skeptical the Lakers defense is going to be good enough for a top seed. LA’s best chance this year is Doncic roaring back to form as a top-4 player in the world, which feels like a pretty good bet. If Doncic can look like a one-man army and lead the Lakers to homecourt advantage, there’s a chance he does enough to edge the two favorites on this list.
2. Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
Jokic has been the best player in the world for five seasons and counting, and it doesn’t feel like he’s going to give up the title any time soon. As he turns 31 in Feb., Jokic finally has another championship-level supporting cast around him, and anything less than another ring is going to count as a failure. The Denver Nuggets won the championship in 2023, and they pushed the eventual champion Thunder to seven games in the playoffs last year. Slowing down Jokic required the full attention of one of the greatest defenses ever, and it’s going to be even more difficult this season with Cameron Johnson waiting to knock down shots on the wing. Jokic already has three MVPs and doesn’t seem particularly interested in winning another one, so it will be interesting to see how much rest he’s taking if and when he’s a serious contender for the award again. Missing the 65-game limit feels like just about the only thing that could kill Jokic’s MVP chances this year, and it’s worth noting he’s always been a durable player. If he just plays his game, we already know there’s no other player on the planet who can touch him.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerged as the best guard in the world last season, and in the process his Oklahoma City Thunder evolved into a championship team. OKC has two great co-stars and elite role players everywhere, but there’s no doubt that SGA is the engine driving their success. Gilgeous-Alexander has an impossible combination of size and skill as a lead ball-handler. At 6’6 with a 7-foot wingspan, SGA has the ball on a string, using creative crossovers and footwork to glide around defenders for scoring opportunities. He’s an elite mid-range shot-maker with the size to splash over any perimeter defender. He might not be quite as magical as Luka in terms of his self-created three-point shooting or his playmaking, but SGA’s funky scoring package is every bit as hard to contain. If he can repeat his incredible production from last year, it’s highly possible he can win another MVP, and the Thunder can become the NBA’s first back-to-back champion since Kevin Durant’s Warriors. Last season was just the beginning for SGA and OKC. The list of potential contenders only grew this summer, but the Thunder are still the measuring stick everyone else is trying to match, and that remains true with Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race, too.