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COMMENT | NNANDA KIZITO SSERUWAGI | Uganda has experienced one of the most impressive rates of economic growth in Africa for the last four decades. This has been possible mostly due to the long period of political stability managed by President Museveni and the good economic policies implemented by his government. There have been distinct phases under which the economy has grown. The first phase was between 1986 and 1990, when the country was mostly recovering from the political turmoil suffered since the early 1970s. The second phase was between 1990 and 2015, when the contribution of services to GDP grew from 32% to 55%, while the share of agriculture in GDP declined from 56% to 24%. Remember, more developed economies depend less on agriculture and more on skilled services and high-tech manufacturing. The third phase, which we can trace from 2000 to date, has seen the country experience economic growth at an annual average rate of 5-6%. By comparative standards, if we look at rates of economic growth on the continent, Uganda has performed much better than many African economies. Between 1990 and 2015, Uganda’s economic growth in terms of real GDP sustained an average of 6.7% per annum. Real GDP per capita grew at 3.3% per year in the same period. In the decade leading to 2024, Uganda’s economy grew at an average of 5.1%, beating most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where the average growth rate was 3.7%. Most noteworthy has been the consistent growth that Museveni has presided over. Many countries experience economic growth in cycles of booms and busts. But Uganda has sustained steady growth, making it one of Africa’s most reliable growth stories and attractive investment destinations. As we head to the 2026 general elections, various political parties have published manifestos to share ideas on several issues about the country’s future. One of the key issues is the economy. We need to evaluate the economic plans the different presidential contestants have for Uganda, especially the two leading candidates, Yoweri Museveni and Robert Kyagulanyi. The NRM manifesto explores the various economic gains the government has achieved over the years. The economy has recovered from the COVID-19 global shocks and doubled from 3.0% in FY2019/20 to 6.3% in FY2024/25. As a result, the economy expanded from Shs 128.5 trillion (USD 34.7 billion) in 2019 to Shs 226.3 trillion (USD 61.3 billion) in FY2024/25. It is now projected that by the end of the FY2025/26, the size of the economy will expand to Shs 254.2 trillion (USD 66.1 billion). In 2024, Uganda also upgraded from a least developed country (LDC) to the lower middle-income category. Uganda’s GDP per capita also increased from Shs 3.15 million (USD 891) in FY2019/20 to Shs 4.52 million (USD 1,263) in FY2024/25 and is expected to increase to Shs 4.76 million (USD 1,324) by the end of FY2025/26. Unlike the trend in most countries, income inequality in Uganda has reduced. The Gini index (a statistical measure used to determine the extent of inequality within a population) reduced to 38% in 2024, from 41% in 2020 and 46% in 1994. Therefore, the gap between the richest person and the poorest is narrowing. The NRM manifesto further shows that jobs that had been eroded by the COVID pandemic have now been restored and increased. New jobs, which had contracted to 258,286 in FY2020/21 due to Covid, have since recovered to 345,039 in FY2021/22, and are expected to reach 399,083 by the end of FY2025/26. The government’s wealth creation initiatives have also increased informal sector employment opportunities from 9 million (FY2019/20) to 10.5 million (FY2024/25), making up over 85% of the workforce and contributing 51% of GDP. Public sector jobs have also been recorded to have expanded from 329,633 (2020) to 366,574 (FY2024/25). The NRM has prudently managed the country’s price stability, making Uganda one of the least costly and price-predictable countries. This has made the cost of living in Uganda very affordable because prices for basic groceries are mostly unchanged or reduced. Additionally, the shilling has been the most stable currency in Africa, gaining value even as many other currencies lost theirs in FY 2024/25. Uganda’s revenue collection has also doubled, with the total revenue collected increasing to Shs 32 trillion in FY2024/25 from Shs 17.6 trillion in FY2019/20. The NRM manifesto notes that the industrial sector has continued to grow due to the expansion of industrial parks across the country. Factories have increased to an estimated 50,000 from 37,559 in 2019/20, with 10,437 of those being formal and 690 located in industrial parks. It is further highlighted that Uganda’s exports are vibrant and getting more diversified and sophisticated. Total export earnings from goods and services reached USD 13.3 billion in FY 2024/25, of which USD 10.6 billion was earned from the export of goods only. Key exports included: gold (USD 4.2 billion); coffee (USD 2.2billion); manufactured products (USD 2.4 billion); Cocoa beans (USD 620.4 million); milk products (USD 79.11 million); base metals and products (USD 225 million); sugar (USD 202.2 million); fish and fish products (USD 149.4 million); ceramic tiles (USD 112.7 million); wood and plywood (USD 93.16 million); plastic products (USD 61.03 million); tea (USD 54.68 million); maize (USD 97 million); beans (USD 71.1 million); flowers (USD 62.41 million); cement (USD 78.04 million); fruits (USD 89.12 million); soya beans and groundnuts (USD 18.3 million), among others. Remittances from Ugandans abroad have now reached USD 1.6 billion (Shs 5.76 trillion) in FY 2024/25, from USD 1.1 billion in FY 2020/21. Uganda’s capacity to power industrialisation has increased, and more Ugandans have ultimately been connected to the grid. Electricity generation rose to 2,051 MW in 2024 from 1,839.4 MW in 2019, with the completion of flagship projects like Karuma, Isimba and other electricity-generating facilities. As a result, access to electricity increased to 60% of the population in 2024, up from 51% in 2019/20, driven by grid extension, solar solutions and last-mile connectivity to end-users. In tourism, earnings have grown by 13.1% to USD 1.52 billion in 12 months to March 2025, from USD 1.36 billion during the same period in 2024. Into the bargain, NRM has, in the past 10 years, invested over Shs 11 trillion in key wealth creation initiatives. These initiatives have contributed to poverty reduction from 56.4% in 1992 to 16.1% in 2024 and cut the number of households in the subsistence economy by more than half from 68% in 2014 to 33% in 2024. Furthermore, they facilitated value addition, empowered youth and women to do business, and helped businesses to recover from economic shocks, including COVID-19. Looking into the future, the NRM manifesto marks out a clear economic mission. It plans to fully monetise the economy and double its size by commercialising agriculture; investing in manufacturing; adding value to minerals and oil & gas; developing tourism; investing in science, technology and innovation (STI) and ICT; and investing in young people with talents. It then goes into detail, explaining how each of the above shall be done. While Chapter 2 of Museveni’s manifesto, titled “Growing the economy and creating wealth”, is solidly dedicated to Uganda’s economy, none of Kyagulanyi’s eleven policy priorities is structurally on Uganda’s economy. The word ‘economy’ is used sweepingly 28 times in the NUP manifesto, without the seriousness and structural analysis it deserves. The writer is a Ugandan thinking about Uganda.
