LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) – What matters in U.S. and global markets today
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U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday – with Trump also sidetracked by the announcement of a peace plan for Gaza. “I think we’re headed to a shutdown,” Vice President JD Vance said.
Budget standoffs have become relatively routine in Washington over the past 15 years and are often resolved at the last minute. But Trump’s willingness to override or ignore spending laws passed by Congress has injected more uncertainty.
After another record high on Monday, Wall Street stock futures pulled back a little ahead of Tuesday’s bell and Treasury yields drifted lower as a funding hiatus undercuts government spending at the margin and Fed easing hopes rest on other labor market data this week. The dollar edged down, but gold fell back too. Quarter-end book squaring may have as much to do with the day’s moves, with Japan’s yen a big gainer ahead of October’s possible interest rate rise and the Aussie dollar up as the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged.
In today’s column, I discuss how the U.S. economy is estimated to be growing at nearly 4% even though job creation appears to be waning – and whether AI is the missing link.
Today’s Market Minute
* Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday.
* Trump said on Monday he would impose a 100% tariff on all films produced overseas that are then sent into the U.S., repeating a threat made in May that would upend Hollywood’s global business model.
* China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, an official survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting producers are waiting for further stimulus to boost domestic demand, as well as clarity on a U.S. trade deal.
* While energy companies are retrenching in the face of a bleak near-term outlook for oil and gas, their investment plans suggest they believe the environment will shift dramatically by the end of the decade, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
Chart of the day
The combination of Federal worker cuts and this week’s possible government shutdown make for a rough year for public sector employees, but their share of the overall workforce has been waning for decades.
Today’s events to watch
* U.S. July house prices (9:00 AM EDT) Chicago September business surveys (09:45 AM EDT) US Sept consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT) August job openings (10:00 AM EDT) Dallas Federal Reserve September service sector survey (10:30 AM EDT)
* Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee and Boston Fed chief Susan Collins all speak; European Central Bank board members Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson speak; Bank of England Deputy Governors Clare Lombardelli and Sarah Breeden and BoE policymaker Catherine Mann all speak
* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, Paychex, Lamb Weston
By Mike Dolan; Editing by Alexandra Hudson
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Mike Dolan is Reuters Editor-at-Large for Finance & Markets and a regular columnist. He has worked as a correspondent, editor and columnist at Reuters for the past 30 years – specializing in global economics and policy and financial markets across G7 and emerging economies. Mike is based in London but has also worked in Washington DC and in Sarajevo and has covered news events from dozens of cities across the world. A graduate in economics and politics from Trinity College Dublin, Mike previously worked with Bloomberg and Euromoney and received Reuters awards for his work during the financial crisis in 2007/2008 and on Frontier Markets in 2010.