Copyright The Boston Globe
Moderna reported third-quarter sales of $1 billion, almost entirely from its COVID vaccine. While that was a 45 percent decline from a year ago, it also topped analysts’ expectations. Moderna shares rose 3.7 percent at 9:33 a.m. in New York Thursday. They were down 43 percent on the year through Wednesday’s close, as the S&P 500 index gained almost 16 percent. While Moderna lowered its revenue guidance, “we see a positive in the company’s ability to more than match this with a $700 million cut to operating expense guidance,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Sam Fazeli and Max Nisen said. The cost savings “puts our worries about near-term cash burn to rest,” they said. Moderna has struggled since the pandemic as demand for COVID vaccines has slipped, with confusion over federal policies adding to the company’s difficulties. Efforts to develop other products have also faced challenges. The company now projects sales of between $1.6 billion and $2 billion, narrower than the previous range that topped out at $2.2 billion. Analysts expect revenue of nearly $1.9 billion this year, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The vaccine maker already lowered the top end of its forecast for 2025 in August, saying it was because some shipments of its COVID vaccine were pushed back to early next year. That was on top of another guidance reduction in January, which sent shares plunging. The company once promised its vaccine for RSV, which was approved last year, would create another large source of revenue. But it has failed to gain traction, generating only $2 million in sales in the quarter. Mock said the RSV market is declining in part because it’s unclear when people are supposed to get vaccinated a second time. The third quarter included the start of the US vaccination season, giving investors their first look at how Moderna’s COVID business has been affected by new guidelines created by US officials led by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine critic. The Food and Drug Administration approved COVID vaccines for a smaller group of people than last year, and an influential group of vaccine advisers, chosen by Kennedy, has sowed uncertainty over who can get COVID shots. The panel, called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, gave their recommendations in mid-September, voting to end universal access to COVID shots and require Americans to confer with a medical professional before getting the vaccine. In early October, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention formally adopted the recommendations. Public health experts have worried that the new policies, a departure from the universal recommendations a year ago, will lead to fewer people getting vaccinated. Several states have tried to counter the panel’s recommendations by creating their own COVID vaccine guidelines to ensure the shots are widely available this fall. Still, data show a roughly 40 percent drop in people getting COVID vaccines at retailers in the third quarter of this year compared with a year earlier, analysts say. In an interview, Mock said “there’s just general confusion” in the US around whether people should get a COVID vaccine. “It’s a bit of a choppy start” to the vaccination season, he said. “We’re not sure what will be the ultimate vaccination rate, but it does appear that it’ll be down.” The company recently suffered a setback to its pipeline when its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial. Moderna said it plans to file for regulatory approval for its flu vaccine in the US, Europe, Australia and Canada by January. It’s awaiting guidance from US officials before seeking approval for its combination vaccine that protects against both the flu and COVID. Investors are looking forward to the company’s potential entry into the cancer market. Moderna is in a late-stage trial for a vaccine for skin cancer. The results could be released by next year, Mock said. Moderna has partnered on the vaccine for melanoma with Merck & Co.
