Copyright The Philadelphia Inquirer
This article is the first in a two-part series on the campaign trail with the candidates for New Jersey governor. WEST WINDSOR, N.J. — Twelve days before the election, the air inside the Mercer Oaks Golf Course dining room was heavy with penne alla vodka and agita. As Mikie Sherrill stepped inside, the crowd of New Jersey Democratic loyalists erupted — waving signs, raising glasses of chardonnay, and straining to snap photos. “We are gonna battle it out for the next couple days,” Sherrill told the group, whose cheers carried a hint of nerves — the tension of a race too close for comfort. Then, invoking one of New Jersey’s favorite historical scenes, she predicted that, like George Washington crossing the Delaware River, these Trenton-area voters would “save the free world once again” when the state elects its next governor on Nov. 4. “This is where the battle is going to take shape,” she said, repeating her signature stump line. “And I know this is where we’re going to win that battle.” In the final stretch before Election Day, Sherrill has amped up the pace — packing her campaign schedule, launching a “Driving Down Costs” bus tour, and calling in Democratic heavyweights — while sticking to the same playbook that powered her dominant primary win. The four-term lawmaker’s campaign is tightly managed, centered on the impact of President Donald Trump’s policies on New Jersey and her Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli’s eagerness to back them. A former Navy helicopter pilot and prosecutor, Sherrill, 53, casts herself as the steady, battle-tested shield against Trumpism in the Garden State. The question for Sherrill is whether that disciplined, playing-not-to-lose approach, plus an impressive resume, can win her the New Jersey governor’s race in a year when both national and state headwinds are at play. In the most expensive gubernatorial battle in New Jersey history, Sherrill has held a slim but consistent lead in the polls despite a barrage of Ciattarelli attacks and a rightward drift in the state. For Democrats in New Jersey and across the country, the stakes could not be higher: All eyes are on her to hold the line in a must-win contest. ‘A knife fight with a spatula’ By most measures, Democrats still have the advantage in New Jersey. They hold a roughly 850,000-voter registration edge, they maintain a strong ground operation, and Trump’s popularity remains low in the state, around 40%, mirroring national trends. Ciattarelli, 63, meanwhile, enters November as the slight underdog — with momentum and less to lose. Running for governor a third time and endorsed by Trump, the former state assemblyman is better known, better organized, and buoyed by a more energized MAGA base than in his previous attempts. But as national Democrats look to Sherrill as their best chance to send a message ahead of the 2026 midterms, and as New Jersey Democrats see her as the last line of defense against Washington, the high stakes of the race have bred anxiety — and some criticism. The Mercer County golf course was buzzing with both last week as Sherrill made the rounds. “People are really afraid — and not at her, more of him,” said David Ponton, a financial analyst and vice chair of the Democratic Party in West Trenton. Ponton said the nerves stem from the shock many felt after Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidency last year — and only narrowly won New Jersey. Charlene Martucci, a 75-year-old union leader who represents college professional staff, sat at a table in the back of the dining room and rattled off Sherrill’s accomplishments: a master’s degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, a law degree from Georgetown, a veteran, a prosecutor. She’d be an ideal governor for the state, Martucci said. Martucci just wishes Sherill had thrown a few more punches. “She’s very respectful. She’s very honest and she’s run a clean campaign, but the old saying that the Democrats come to a knife fight with a spatula fits here,” Martucci said. “There were a lot of missed opportunities.” Ciattarelli and political action committees supporting him have tried to paint Sherrill as a too-liberal Trump-hater, accusing her of supporting open borders and the state’s LGBTQ-inclusive curriculum standards. He’s hammered her over the fact that she did not walk at her Naval Academy graduation. Sherrill has said that was because she would not tell on her peers under investigation for a cheating scandal. “I mean, this is New Jersey!” Martucci said, banging a manicured hand on the table and launching into an unsolicited campaign spot idea: “She needs to play the clip from Scent of a Woman when Al Pacino says, ‘But not a snitch!’ She’s not a freakin’ snitch. To me, that shows integrity.” Sherrill’s most combative moment came in the final debate, when she claimed that Ciattarelli had “killed tens of thousands of people” through his medical publishing company that downplayed the risk of opioids. Ciattarelli has since threatened to sue her for defamation. Sherrill, asked whether she has run a bold campaign, argued she has delivered a gutsy plan for what she wants to do as governor. She has promised to declare a state of emergency over energy pricing and to freeze rate hikes, which would require taking on utility companies in the state. She has said she’ll require pharmacy benefit managers who negotiate drug prices to pass discounts onto patients. And she has repeatedly vowed to take on Trump over myriad decisions, including freezing federal funding for a North Jersey tunnel project. “I’ve got your back,” she told the crowd at the golf course, adding that her definition of servant leadership is not always being on the attack. “I was trained that leadership is as much about taking care of the people that you lead as it is leading them in battle.” Sherrill’s ground game Union nurses, construction workers, and electricians filed into the Camden County Democratic Committee headquarters, tucked inside a Cherry Hill strip mall, early Saturday to pick up canvassing materials. “We’ve got a tough election here. Don’t listen to the polls,” said Charles Wowkanech, leader of the New Jersey State AFL-CIO. “Every door you knock today could make a difference. This election, it’s gonna affect you, your union, and your family if it don’t go our way.” Sherrill jogged up onto the small stage inside the headquarters and told the crowd about how her grandparents overcame losses in the Great Depression through supportive unions and middle-class jobs, then took a jab at Trump. “At every single turn, we are seeing this president enrich himself and working people losing jobs and paying more,” she told the crowd. The union canvassing operation has been underway for eight weeks, part of a ground game that Sherrill is hoping can build her a winning coalition. Sherrill’s coordinated campaign has paid staff in 15 of 21 counties, with volunteers in the others. To win, Sherrill needs to turn out Democratic strongholds — cities and populous suburban towns largely along the New Jersey Turnpike; appeal to unaffiliated voters across the state; and win over just enough Republicans in places like Morris, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. Support from Republicans and unaffiliated voters in the state’s northern suburbs fueled Sherrill’s unexpected and nationally watched congressional win in 2018. She flipped the red seat blue, defeating a Trump-backed opponent in an open contest in which Republicans were heavily favored that year. Most independent polls in the last month show Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by 5 to 7 percentage points, often inside the margin of error. A prominent exception is an Emerson College poll conducted toward the end of September, which found a tied race. As Sherrill aims to appeal to a broad swath of ideologies with a narrow lead, she has given vague answers to some policy questions on issues that have become tenuous for Democrats, like on care for transgender minors and immigration enforcement. She also wouldn’t say in a debate whether she would raise the state sales tax, though she later released an ad promising not to increase the levy. “I’d like to see her hard-hitting and avoid those canned campaign lines,” said Marian Zelazny, a 62-year-old retiree and Democratic committee person from Lawrence Township. But Zelazny, who said she supports Sherrill, excused some of the caution, too. “She doesn’t want to promise something that she’s not gonna come through with, and I totally respect that.” Sherrill also needs to reverse some concerning signs for Democrats among New Jersey’s Black and Latino voters following the presidential election. Trump won traditionally blue and majority-Latino Passaic County in 2024 and narrowed the gap in other urban areas, stunning longtime New Jersey political watchers. Sherrill’s campaign is running Spanish-language radio, TV, and digital ads and hosting numerous events with leaders in hopes of reaching Latino voters. Following appearances with U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D., N.J.) and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, she spoke to Black voters at a Souls 2 the Polls event with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in East Brunswick and then stumped in Camden with Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle L. Parker. Booker said that while Democratic losses last year in Black communities were concerning, he thinks Ciattarelli’s embrace of Trump, as the president’s approval ratings decline, will cost him. Ciattarelli gave the president an “A” in a recent debate and has cited very few Trump policies with which he disagrees. “You’re not going to go into the Black community, into the Latino community, into the Muslim community in Passaic County, and tell people you’re 100% behind Donald Trump, and think people are going to vote for you,” Booker said. “They’re going to vote against you for that reason.” Ciattarelli‘s campaign has hosted larger-scale rallies, a la Trump, for months, as Sherrill opted for smaller-scale events, many of which were not open to the press — a trend that drew criticism and made it difficult to witness more candid, intimate moments with voters. As Election Day approaches, she has ramped up her campaign schedule significantly. “She’s really connecting with people,” said Janice Mironov, mayor of East Windsor and chair of the Mercer County Democrats. “She can talk to fellow moms about the college application process or … go in detail about tax policy." All about Trump At each campaign stop, Sherrill has focused on attacking Trump and Republican policies, from tariffs to Medicaid cuts — which she argues make the affordability crisis in New Jersey, a state with some of the highest tax burdens in the country, even harder. In Cherry Hill last weekend, she told union members that Trump “is pocketing billions of dollars, while everybody here is paying more for everything from their cup of coffee in the morning to their grocery store prices.” Ciattarelli, who has campaigned with Trump allies and held a tele-town hall with Trump last week, criticizes Sherrill’s focus on the president. He has tried to run a much more local campaign. Even some Democratic insiders have wondered privately whether she has offered enough tangible policy ideas to motivate people toward her, rather than simply away from Trump. Republicans capitalized on a clip of Sherrill stumbling over a question from CBS New York about the one piece of legislation she would most want to pass. “I’ve focused … again and again on cost here in New Jersey and what I can do as governor,” Sherrill told The Inquirer. “But at the same time, we are seeing our costs go up in almost every single way because of the Trump administration. So those people who think that you are somehow going to focus on affordability and not mention Trump are crazy.” U.S. Sen. Andy Kim (D., N.J.) said he thinks Sherrill’s strategy of connecting Ciattarelli to Trump and the flailing economy is the right move. “He is not trying to lower prices and make things more affordable. That was the defining issue of the 2024 election cycle, and… it’s still the defining issue,” Kim said. Many Sherrill voters on the trail say they are motivated by the opportunity to push back on Trump. Dantwan Hill, a concrete pourer and member of the South Jersey local laborers council, was canvassing for Sherrill last week and is voting in his first gubernatorial race this year. His union’s outreach and high prices pushed him to get involved. “Trump’s screwing up our world,” Hill, a 42-year-old father of two young kids, said. “It ain’t the fact that I don’t like him. It’s just, I think he’s just worried about hisself, he trying to do anything that’s gonna benefit him.” For Karen Johnson, a nurse and a member of Health Professionals and Allied Employees Local 513, the race feels “more important than ever.” Johnson’s daughter, who is lesbian, pushed up her wedding because she was fearful her marriage protections could come under threat. Her teenage son is transgender. “This next governor could really decide the rights we have, that our kids have,” Johnson, who lives in Salem County, said. Headwinds and history While national headwinds could blow in Democrats’ favor, historically, New Jersey has had a tendency to alternate which party is in the governor’s mansion. The state has not elected a member of the same party as its governor for three consecutive terms since the 1960s. Sherrill has tried to differentiate herself from Gov. Phil Murphy, the two-term Democratic incumbent who formerly worked at Goldman Sachs, by emphasizing her distinct military and public service background. The mother of four rarely mentions the historic nature of her campaign on the trail, but it’s self-evident. New Jersey has elected a woman to the office only once, former Republican Christie Todd Whitman, who endorsed Sherrill this year. If elected, Sherrill would be the first female veteran to become a United States governor. In the tight race, polling of likely voters has shown Sherrill holds an advantage with women, while Ciattarelli has more support from men. Kim, who won a Senate seat after a campaign rooted in rejecting the status quo, dismissed the attack that Sherrill represents more of the same Democratic leadership in New Jersey. “She is not somebody that lives and breathes this, and has been enmeshed in the machine politics for years,” he said, calling Ciattarelli, in the midst of a third run, “straight out of central casting.” Sherrill has been counted out wrongly before. She tells a story on the stump about when she first wanted to become a naval pilot and her dad questioned whether commanders would let her fly combat missions. She graduated with the first class of female combat pilots. She flipped her congressional seat in 2018. And while she was favored in the crowded gubernatorial primary, she wound up winning by 13 points in a race that many pundits were calling a toss-up heading into Election Day. Does she feel underestimated this time? Sherrill considered the question as she talked to The Inquirer very briefly between campaign stops. Her sunglasses reflected the changing leaves in the parking lot where the door to her SUV stood open, waiting to take her to the next event. “I don’t worry too much about what pundits say, because I talk to the people of New Jersey, and so I speak to thousands of people at this point a day,” she said, stepping into the vehicle. “I know where New Jersey’s at, and I know what I’ve got to do to win.”
