Copyright Newsweek
Democratic U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, according to CNN and NBC. Why It Matters The New Jersey governor's race was a key bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections, when Democrats hope to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. Sherrill’s victory could boost Democrats’ optimism about those races next year as the party has continued grappling with the loss of former Vice President Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. Mikie Sherrill Wins New Jersey Governor's Race: What To Know Sherrill led Ciattarelli 56.7% to 42.8% when CNN called the race just before 9 p.m. Tuesday. Her victory means Democrats will hold onto the governorship, flipped by Governor Phil Murphy in 2018. Why It Matters New Jersey’s gubernatorial race was seen as a key bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections, when Democrats hope to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. Ciattarelli’s victory is a red flag for Democrats about their chances. Historically, when the party in the White House performs poorly in the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races, they go on to suffer losses in the midterms. When they perform well, they tend to do better in the midterms. Polls pointed to a close race in the final days of the campaign. RealClearPolitics’ aggregate showed Sherrill leading by about 3 points over Ciattarelli, while a Race to the WH aggregate showed her ahead by around 4 points. Many polls were within the margin of error, like an Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill poll that gave the Democrat a single-point lead (49 percent to 48 percent). It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 25-28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Forecasters had also considered Sherrill the front-runner—Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classified the race as Leans Democratic. Affordability remained a key issue in the race, as both candidates sought to convince voters they were the stronger candidate to take on issues including taxes and soaring energy bills in the Garden State. Sherrill also sought to tie Ciattarelli to President Donald Trump, whose approval rating has fallen nationwide since his return to office. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli’s campaign. New Jersey backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and ex-President Joe Biden by double-digits over Trump and was once viewed as a solidly Democratic state. Trump, however, made inroads with New Jersey voters in November 2024, making for a surprisingly close race. He lost the state to Harris by about 6 percentage points, sparking questions about whether New Jersey could soon become a swing state. Murphy was ineligible to run again for governor due to term limits. Some Democrats had expressed concerns about the race. Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who lost to Sherrill in the primary, warned last week on X that New Jersey “may actually have an upset.” How Many New Jersey Residents Voted Early? More than 1.1 million New Jerseyans voted early, reported The New York Times. Sherrill built up an advantage among those early voters—51 percent were Democrats, while only 29 percent were Republicans. Twenty percent were unaffiliated. What People Are Saying Dan Cassino, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University, previously told Newsweek: “All of the traditional polling has shown Sherrill with a lead of between about 4 and 7 points, and the early voting and vote by mail numbers have been consistent with that. Right now, it looks like Democrats will have a buffer of around 280,000 votes going into Election Day, a little bigger than in past years, and while it’s plausible that Ciattarelli could win Election Day votes, it would be unprecedented for him to win by 300,000 votes. I’m always open to being surprised by what happens on Election Day, but we’re just not seeing anything in the data that suggests a huge surge for Ciattarelli.” Sherrill, Sunday on X: “Unlike @Jack4NJ, I'm working to make New Jersey a better state for every New Jerseyan, not just Donald Trump's inner circle.” Ciattarelli, Saturday on X: “New Jersey families are getting squeezed from every direction. We’ve got the highest property taxes in America. Electric bills skyrocketing. Homes so expensive that young families can’t even afford to start here. Childcare costs through the roof. Insurance rates that feel like highway robbery. And what’s Trenton doing? Spending your money like it’s Monopoly cash. We can fix this — but only if we finally say enough to the party that created this mess.” What Happens Next Sherrill will take office in January.
