Copyright Newsweek
Newsweek has rounded up what several polls are saying about Mikie Sherrill’s chances of winning the New Jersey election. The Democratic candidate, who is hoping to be elected New Jersey governor next week, has the lead across many polls, although to varying degrees. Why it Matters The New Jersey governor’s race between Sherrill and Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli stands as one of the nation’s two gubernatorial contests in 2025, alongside Virginia. It could be a critical bellwether for voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms, with both national parties closely watching for shifts in long-standing voting trends. New Jersey has not elected a Republican governor in over a decade, and the state remains a linchpin of Democratic strength in the Northeast, but the close competition underscores growing political volatility and signals possible recalibrations in the national party strategies. The contest will determine the successor to outgoing Democrat Phil Murphy, whose tenure has marked consistent statewide Democratic governance, but who leaves office at a time when economic anxiety and debates over national political figures, including President Donald Trump, weigh heavily on the electorate. What To Know Sherrill has a three-point lead on Ciattarelli (49 percent vs. 46 percent), according to the polling and forecasting firm Quantus Insights. This is based on answers from 1,380 likely voters questioned between October 26 and 27. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Her lead is slightly smaller in a co/efficient poll (1 percent) with Sherrill at 48 percent and Ciattarelli at 47 percent. Some 995 voters were surveyed between October 23 and 27. Newsweek has contacted Ciattarelli, via online contact form, to ask its margin of error. Meanwhile, Sherrill enjoyed a larger lead (5 percent) in a less recent Rutgers-Eagleton poll (which took place between October 3 and October 17), with 50 percent of 795 likely voters saying that would vote for her and 45 percent saying that would vote for Ciattarelli. The poll disclaims a +/- 4.7 percentage point margin of error. GQR, a Democratic Party sponsored poll, shows Sherrill with a lead of 12 percentage points: 52 percent to Ciattarelli’s 40 percent. The survey was conducted between October 15 and 20, among 1,000 likely voters, and disclaims a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. A Republican sponsored poll with KAConsulting still has Sherrill in the lead with 3 more points than Ciattarelli: 47 percent to 44 percent. Some 601 likely voters were questioned between October 15 and 16. There is a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. What People Are Saying Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, previously told Newsweek: "While races have got closer in New Jersey, it's still a Democrat state. There's some disquiet that Sherrill is just a retread of the outgoing governor, Phil Murphy, and her challenger, Jack Ciattarelli has had a decent campaign, backed by President Trump and campaigning hard on tax reduction. But he has lost the gubernatorial race twice before, and there's no indication he'll be third time lucky." Sherrill posted on X on Tuesday: “I'm in awe of the spirit, tenacity, and grit of every New Jerseyan that's fighting with me to get this team over the finish line. 6 days and a wake up, and we've never been more ready to land this thing.” Ciattarelli posted on X: “This campaign is about change. It’s about restoring hope for New Jersey’s future. Hope for families struggling to afford to stay here, seniors struggling to retire here. Hope for safer communities, better schools, and a government that finally puts you first.” What Happens Next Election Day in New Jersey is set for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. Early voting has already begun statewide. Both campaigns are intensifying their outreach during the final week, targeting undecided voters and focusing on turnout operations, especially among independents and key demographic groups such as younger and suburban voters.
