Somehow, some way, the New York Mets are still in the driver’s seat.
All eyes will be on loanDepot Park in Miami this weekend, as the Mets look to nail down a playoff spot against the just-eliminated Miami Marlins. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks, who want to knock New York out, will both travel to play crucial road series as well.
Entering play on Friday, the Mets held the last wild-card spot at 82-77. The Reds are 81-78, and the Diamondbacks are 80-79, with both teams having blown golden opportunities to catch New York simply by winning their most recent series.
Still, the Mets are far from out of the woods. Here, then, is a look at what New York needs to do to lock down their spot in October, and how the other two teams can still spoil the party.
Mets’ magic number: 3
Because the Reds defeated the Mets head-to-head in their season series this year, New York will have to finish one or more games ahead of Cincinnati in the standings to punch its ticket to October. So with three games left, the Mets’ magic number to make the playoffs is three.
A combination of Mets wins and Reds losses that adds up to three should get the job done, but New York still has to worry about Arizona if Cincinnati falls on its face this weekend.
The Diamondbacks also won the season series against the Mets, so the magic number for New York to finish ahead of Arizona is two.
Looking at the other sides’ perspectives, Cincinnati needs to win at least one more game than the Mets this weekend, and avoid losing two more games than the Diamondbacks, since the Reds own that tiebreaker as well.
Arizona, meanwhile, would have to win two more games than both the Mets and Reds, which isn’t impossible, but would likely require it to sweep the San Diego Padres.
Entering play on Friday, the Mets had a 78.8% chance to lock down that final wild-card spot, per Fangraphs. The Reds were at 19.4%, and the Diamondbacks at 1.8%.
In an absolutely crucial game on Friday night, the Mets are slated to send rookie Brandon Sproat to the mound for just his fourth career major league start.
