Copyright Athlon Sports
Max Scherzer refused to believe. After the Toronto Blue Jays took a devastating, 11-inning, Game 7 loss in the World Series, the future Hall of Famer just could not believe that he had thrown his last pitch in the major leagues. And, though he is now 41 with all of the hardware and accolades to make him a first-ballot Hall of Famer, it’s likely that Scherzer will find a home this winter. The business of baseball is brutal and began hours after the final out in that dramatic World Series. If you are tracking the early offseason decisions, our calendar at MLB offseason key dates has the signing windows and roster deadlines that shape his market. For how qualifying offer decisions affect the first wave, see Tucker and Schwarber headline this week’s MLB decisions. For Scherzer, there are a few teams out there that would take a chance on him, even after a rough season. What 2025 Looked Like The year was uneven early and competitive late. Scherzer’s 2025 was choppy early and competitive late: 17 starts, 85.0 innings, 5–5, 5.19 ERA, 82 strikeouts and a 1.29 WHIP, followed by a 3.77 ERA over 14.1 postseason innings for Toronto. Statcast suggests the stuff still missed bats in spots but was more contact-prone than peak Max: average exit velocity 88.3 mph, hard-hit rate 38.2%, barrel rate 12.4%, with a near-match between wOBA (.346) and xwOBA (.345). He also lost time with a right-thumb IL stint in May before settling in for the stretch run. The Career Context Scherzer’s resume is already first-ballot caliber. He owns three Cy Young Awards, a 221–117 career record with a 3.22 ERA, and 3,489 strikeouts in 2,963.0 innings, plus two rings with Washington in 2019 and Texas in 2023. His October line is real workload and real punchouts: 33 games (28 starts), 157.1 innings, 182 strikeouts and a 3.78 ERA. By advanced value, he sits around 73 career WAR on FanGraphs, the neighborhood where modern Hall of Famers live. And while he’s no longer peak Max, the bat-missing skill is still there in smaller bursts—his 2025 indicators included a 22.9% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, and FIP/xFIP of 4.99/4.55, the profile of a veteran who can still give five tough innings for a contender Where He Fits In 2026 Basically, at this point in his career, Scherzer is looking at a short-term contract with teams that are contending. Toronto could circle back if the cost and the medicals line up. There is also a clean clubhouse fit in San Francisco. New Giants manager Tony Vitello is one of Scherzer’s closest friends from Missouri. If San Francisco wants a veteran who can set standards while Vitello transitions to the MLB, a short deal built around late-season innings and leadership checks every box. Add the usual suspects with October ambitions and rotation questions. Clubs that value veteran certainty and can script five and fly will be in the conversation. What Matters To The Market It still comes down to health and missing bats. His strikeouts and WHIP say the command didn’t fall apart. The ERA on the page will spook a few teams. The right ones will look past it, check the medicals, and picture him in a five-and-fly role in September. One clean bullpen and a live look can flip the market. What’s Next Scherzer doesn’t sound like a man ready to hand up his cleats and glove. He talked all postseason about how energized he was by the clubhouse. He is likely going to sign a one-year deal later this offseason. While there will certainly be temptation to go West with his friend, he has to make it count. If 2026 is the last lap, he intends to make it count.
