If U.S. Sen. Ed Markey was sweating a bumpy road to reelection in 2026, then he probably welcomed the recent news that there’s now one less obstacle in his path.
Namely, U.S. Rep. Jake Auchincloss, the rising political star from Newton who’s positioned himself as the intellectual conscience of a party that seems particularly rudderless in the age of Trump 2.0.
The 37-year-old, Harvard-educated Marine veteran told the Boston Globe this week that he’s taking a pass on a 2026 primary campaign and instead will concentrate on holding onto his own seat and running a PAC dedicated to recapturing the House and rehabilitating the party’s damaged brand among voters.
“I am not going to challenge Ed,” Auchincloss, D-4th District, told the Globe. “After November, I spent six months digging into how I could best help — the country is in crisis, the party is in the doldrums. Ultimately, I decided I could have maximum impact as chair of [the PAC] Majority Democrats, rather than an expensive primary campaign.”
But Auchincloss’s exit from the field raises key questions about Markey, D-Mass., who has been racking up endorsements from senior Democrats across the state.
Can anyone stop the Malden Democrat’s march to a third term? Should they? And what does it mean for the state if the voters send Markey back to Capitol Hill in 2026?
The first one is the easiest to answer.
Auchincloss might have been the most high-profile of the likely 2026 primary challengers. But that doesn’t mean Markey is now running without opposition for the Democratic nomination.
In May, Alex Rikleen, a political newcomer and fantasy sports writer, threw his hat into the ring, saying he wants to do more to fight the “existential threat” posed by Trump 2.0.
“Democrats the whole last campaign, the overwhelming message was ‘existential threat, existential threat,’” Rikleen told Politico. “And Ed Markey has been around for — this is his seventh new Republican administration — and I don’t see any difference in how he is responding to this new Republican administration versus any of the previous six.”
In June, charter school executive Earl Martin Phalen announced he was exploring a 2026 bid.
“In the past three decades, I have witnessed thousands of American families be transformed by education and skilled trades programs. I believe with the right resources, collaboration, and legislation, one million families can be lifted out of poverty,” he said in a statement. “The state of Massachusetts, through the Senate office, can be a leader of that change.”
One more dark horse: U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, D-6th District, who was spotted wandering the streets of Salem earlier this month with a film crew in tow. He was silent about its purpose and his aspirations, if any. But Moulton is known to have his eye on bigger things.
On the Republican side of the ledger, lawyer John Deaton, who unsuccessfully challenged U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in 2024, is reportedly considering a GOP bid, with a decision expected this fall.
Any challenger will face significant structural and financial hurdles. Markey was sitting on $2.5 million in his campaign account through the end of June, according to federal filings.
He also spent the summer locking up endorsements from the state’s Capitol Hill delegation, including its dean, U.S. Rep. Richard Neal, D-1st District (their ranks notably did not include Auchincloss).
Ditto for the local and state-level elected officials who serve as the ground troops during any successful campaign.
Auchincloss is no fundraising slouch. He had $5.8 million in his campaign account through the end of June. He’ll take that proficiency with him to his PAC.
Moulton, meanwhile, had $2.1 million available to him through the end of June, federal filings show.
It will take that kind of money to stay competitive with Markey in an intramural contest.
The stumbling blocks
But Markey isn’t without his problems. First elected to the U.S. House in 1976, Markey, now 79, would turn 80 on Election Day and turn 86 by the time he serves out a third term.
More than half of the respondents (55%) to a March poll by the conservative Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance Foundation said they had a favorable opinion of the veteran pol.
But an equal number also said they believed it was time for him to step aside and not seek reelection. The poll of 800 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.6%.
Couple that with the desire by some younger Democrats for new blood and a rebrand, and that adds up to a problem for Markey.
“I just think he’s lost his fastball,” said Matt L. Barron, a veteran consultant from Western Massachusetts who’s tracked state politics for years.
“The Senate is a seniority game and Markey does have seniority. But he’s in the minority and it’s devalued because of it,” he continued. “… I would argue, let’s get someone younger, who can start building seniority, and after 2028, the Democrats can start thinking about becoming the party of power in the Senate.”
Not everyone sees it that way.
In a high-stakes mid-term, Markey could marshal the support of younger voters, who tend to be more progressive, and who are more likely to be aligned against the Trump White House.
“From the perspective of national and state Democrats, it’s good if [Markey] goes unchallenged by a Democrat,” veteran consultant Anthony Cignoli said. “He is instrumental in Democrats possibly retaking the Senate majority and helping others to win.”
And Markey has been active in the anti-Trump resistance, holding news conferences and making the rounds of local chat shows to argue the case against the Republican White House.
“It’s not your age. It’s the age of your ideas,” he told the Boston Globe earlier this year, adding, “I’m still the youngest guy in the room. Like Paul McCartney, I keep on rocking.“
And that makes him different from former President Joe Biden, who showed his age, and “was a gaffe machine before he was” in the White House, said Jerold Duquette, a Central Connecticut State University politics professor, who tracks Bay State politics, said.
Ultimately, it’ll be up to the voters to decide whether they want to change horses. And Bay Staters, generally, have been good about showing pols the door when they believe their time has come.
“When you step back and look at the Massachusetts electorate, it’s a real thing and they enforce it,” Duquette noted.
“He has to show he is meeting the moment by running,” Duquette said.