Copyright Benzinga
Markets rallied sharply Monday morning as Congress edged closer to a deal that could end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. A Sunday night vote in the Senate pushed a bipartisan spending bill forward by a 60–40 margin, with eight Democrats crossing party lines to back Republicans. That procedural breakthrough signals the government may soon reopen after 40 days of halted federal operations, disrupted paychecks and delayed economic data. Odds Plunge For Shutdown Extension Betting markets reacted quickly. According to Kalshi, the odds of the shutdown lasting beyond Wednesday, Nov. 13, dropped to 56%—a sharp 27-point drop from the day prior. The chance it would stretch past Thursday, Nov. 14, tumbled even more, down over 30 points to just 33%. The legislation funds the government through January and covers key programs like military housing, veterans' benefits and the Department of Agriculture. It also includes a Republican promise to bring Affordable Care Act subsidy extensions up for a vote later, which swayed several Democrats to back the bill. Markets are now bracing for a flood of delayed economic reports, with six weeks of key data stuck in limbo. The most anticipated? September's jobs report—initially scheduled for Oct. 3—could come within days of reopening. The Labor Department is several weeks behind on the October employment and inflation data. Analysts expect that payrolls numbers might not arrive for at least two weeks, potentially leaving the Federal Reserve flying blind ahead of its next rate decision on Dec. 10. Stocks, Crypto, Gold All Jump Peter Schiff, a prominent investor and vocal deficit hawk, said the end of the shutdown meant "it's back to business as usual in Washington, D.C.," with deficits and inflation likely to rise, pushing investors to alternatives like gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Indeed, gold rose 2% Monday, and silver climbed 3%. Thirty minutes into Monday's session, these were the top-performing stocks with market caps above $50 billion, per Benzinga Pro: AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:APP): up by 7.90% Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU): up by 7.00% Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:GOLD): up by 6.46% Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR): up by 6.22% Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC): up by 5.55% Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT): up by 5.50% Diageo PLC (NYSE:DEO): up by 5.26% Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD): up by 4.91% CoreWeave Inc. (private): up by 4.90% Constellation Energy Corp. (NASDAQ:CEG): up by 4.31% Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY): up by 4.28% Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:STX): up by 4.27% Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE:NET): up by 4.18% Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM): up by 4.09% Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD): up by 3.98% History Says Wall Street Likes A Reopened Government Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, closely analyzed the market's behavior during and after past shutdowns — and the data paints a bullish picture. According to Detrick, in 20 of the past 22 instances, the S&P 500 posted gains in the year following the reopening of the government. On average, the index has returned over 12% in the twelve months following the reopening. That trend held even during the most disruptive shutdowns, such as the 35-day stalemate from December 2018 to January 2019. The S&P 500 surged, delivering a staggering 23.7% gain over the following 12 months. Read Next: Senate Reaffirms Back Pay For 41 Days Of Missed Wages As Shutdown Nears End Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
