Copyright Newsweek
Nine months into his term, Donald Trump’s approval ratings reveal a stark divide across the United States. The latest data from Civiqs shows that Trump remains strongest in traditionally conservative states in the West and South where he achieved decisive electoral victories, while facing deep unpopularity in Democratic-leaning states. Meanwhile, in the swing states, Trump's approval is generally underwater ahead of the 2026 midterms. Why It Matters The data highlights how sharply divided the country remains and suggests that even after winning the 2024 election, Trump faces persistent challenges in broadening his appeal. In swing states, where his approval is only slightly below 50 percent, his ability to maintain political momentum could influence legislative priorities, party strategy, and the positioning of potential challengers. What To Know In traditionally conservative states, Trump remains strongly supported. Wyoming leads with 65 percent approval, 31 percent disapproval, and a net approval of +34. West Virginia follows at 61 percent approve, 33 percent disapprove (+28), while North Dakota, Idaho, and Montana also maintain net approvals above +20, highlighting a consistent base of support in the West and parts of the South. By contrast, Trump faces significant opposition in Democratic-leaning states, particularly on the coasts. Hawaii shows just 21 percent approve, 75 percent disapprove, with a net approval of −54, and Vermont is similarly lopsided at 24 percent approve, 72 percent disapprove (−48). California and New York remain heavily negative, with net approvals of −38 and −32, despite Trump winning 29 percent and 44 percent of the vote in 2024, respectively. Other states such as Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island also continue to reflect strong resistance, with net approvals ranging from −40 to −42. Swing states, which were decisive in the 2024 election, show a more nuanced picture. In Pennsylvania, where he narrowly won 51 percent of the vote, approval now stands at 43 percent with 52 percent disapprove, giving a net of −9. Michigan and Wisconsin show similar trends, with approval around 41–43 percent, disapproval 54 percent, and net approval at −11 to −13. North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada also lean slightly negative, with net approvals ranging from −7 to −10. While Trump retains a dedicated base of roughly 40–44 percent in these battlegrounds, disapproval consistently outweighs support, suggesting that public opinion is less enthusiastic than the election results might suggest. It comes as Morning Consult polling showed this week that for the first time since Trump's second term began, his approval rating was underwater in every swing state. Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek that ahead of the midterms, the polling is "bad news for Trump and the GOP." "The fact that Trump's approval is underwater in every swing state underscores how divisive his presidency continues to be — he’s consolidating his base but struggling to broaden it. Trump not being on the top of the ticket in 2026 also spells challenges for Republicans, as in the past they’ve underperformed in many state races when Trump wasn’t in the running,” he said. Control of swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina will be central to determining the balance of power in Congress in the 2026 midterms. It is a longstanding pattern in U.S. politics that the party holding the White House tends to lose seats in Congress during the midterm elections. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm cycle, often by wide margins. And early polling suggests the generic congressional ballot is tilting toward Democrats. However, things remain competitive, with CNN predicting that the Democrats could lose up to 19 seats in the House of Representatives, meaning the GOP would hold on to its control of the chamber. However, presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent tend to see even larger losses: on average, they have lost about 37 House seats, according to Gallup. Multiple recent polls have put Trump's approval rating below 50 percent. Newsweek's tracker recently put it at 45 percent. Civiqs puts Trump's overall approval rating at 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving. What Happens Next Political strategists and pollsters say sustained sub-majority approval ratings can harm the sitting president's party in midterm elections by motivating opposition turnout and complicating messaging for swing-district Republican candidates.
