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The upcoming Bihar assembly elections promise a high-stakes battle, characterised by a complex interplay of development narratives, caste arithmetic, youth aspirations, and the shadow of anti-incumbency. The contest primarily pits the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the BJP and JD(U), against the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), led by the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. The central issues shaping the electoral debate are multi-layered and touch upon the state’s most pressing structural challenges. 1. The Primacy of Jobs, Migration, and Youth Anger The most potent electoral theme remains the pervasive issue of unemployment and forced migration. With Bihar possessing a large and restive youth demographic, the lack of quality local jobs forces millions of Biharis to seek livelihoods in other states. The Unemployment Crisis: Despite official figures showing a drop in the unemployment rate, the reality on the ground is that most jobs created are low-paid and insecure, leading to massive frustration among educated youth. Recurring incidents of government exam paper leaks have only fuelled this youth anger—a critical factor that the opposition, particularly Tejashwi Yadav, has successfully leveraged by focusing on the promise of government jobs. The Migration Factor: The pain of migration and the longing for opportunities at home are potent emotional issues that resonate across every constituency, forcing both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan to run mini-campaigns to woo migrant voters in industrial hubs like the NCR. 2. The Dominance of Caste Arithmetic and the Census Effect Caste remains the bedrock of Bihar’s political mobilisation, a reality intensified by the state’s recent caste survey revelations. EBCs as Kingmakers: The survey confirmed that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) together constitute nearly 63% of the population, with the EBCs alone making up 36%. This demographic reality has made EBCs the decisive vote bank. Alliance Strategy: The JD(U)’s traditional strength lies in its meticulous cultivation of the EBC and Mahadalit vote. The RJD banks on the formidable Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination, while the BJP attempts to consolidate upper castes with sections of OBCs and Dalits. Ticket distribution across all parties has been a calculated exercise in caste balancing, seeking to turn demographic numbers into electoral gains. 3. The Anti-Incumbency and Leadership Question The election is widely seen as a verdict on the nearly two-decade-long rule of chief minister Nitish Kumar, who faces significant anti-incumbency and voter fatigue. Nitish vs Tejashwi: The contest is a generational battle. Nitish Kumar’s image as the “Vikas Purush” (development man), known for improving law and order and delivering social welfare, is challenged by public weariness and his frequent alliance shifts. RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, 36, has effectively positioned himself as the youthful alternative, capitalising on the demand for a generational and governmental change. Dynasty vs Development: Despite promises of development, a noticeable feature of the candidate lists from all major parties, including the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, is the proliferation of dynastic candidates, underscoring that family connections and inherited political networks remain a safe bet for electoral success in the state. In essence, the Bihar polls will be determined by which alliance most convincingly addresses the economic anxieties of the youth while successfully managing the delicate, and now data-driven, matrix of caste politics.
