Copyright Newsweek
A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows the outlook six days ahead of the New York City mayoral race, with Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani leading amid an uptick in undecided voters. Why It Matters With just days until the city's mayoral election on November 4, numerous polls show Mamdani, a Democratic socialist and first-time citywide candidate, holding a strong lead over his rivals, former New York governor and independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. The race has garnered national attention from both Democrats and Republicans as analysts say the outcome could likely influence policy priorities on critical issues ranging from affordability to crime. The city's future relationship with President Donald Trump has also come under question as Trump has threatened to withhold funding for Mamdani's "FAKE Communist promises." What To Know In a new Quinnipiac poll released on Wednesday, Mamdani has 43 percent of the vote among likely voters. Cuomo has 33 percent, and Sliwa has 14 percent. Six percent are undecided, and 3 percent refused to respond. This poll surveyed 911 likely New York City voters from October 23 to October 27 with a 4 percent margin of error. In an earlier poll, Mamdani had 46 percent of the vote compared to Cuomo's 33 percent and Sliwa's 15 percent. Three percent were undecided, and 2 percent refused to respond. The poll surveyed 1,015 likely New York City voters from October 3 to October 7 and had a 3.9 percent margin of error. "The candidates have made their case, early voting is underway, Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains," Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow said regarding Wednesday's results. "The percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased a bit since earlier this month, suggesting there's room for movement in the final stretch." However, Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek that "there are enough undecided voters to make this a close race, but it is a long shot that they would all break toward Cuomo. There may be Sliwa voters who oppose Mamdani enough that they could switch to Cuomo at the last minute, but there have been no clear signs of that. Barring some stunning bias in the pre-election surveys, it is difficult to see Mamdani losing to Cuomo." Cuomo has landed the backing of current New York City Mayor Eric Adams and New York Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi. Mamdani has been endorsed by New York Governor Kathy Hochul, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and New York Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Wednesday's poll also shows that Mamdani is winning over younger voters, and Cuomo is favored by older voters. "Mamdani is the clear favorite among younger voters, while the race is much closer among voters 50 and over as Cuomo and Sliwa fare better among older voters," Snow said. What People Are Saying D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek on Wednesday: "Polls like Quinnipiac's try to estimate who is likely to vote by asking them questions about their interest in the race and their commitment to participating. That estimation process is going to have some error in it, and some of those so-called Likely Voters won't actually cast ballots. "Notably, the undecided voters in Quinnipiac's poll tend to be from demographic groups that often have low participation rates: young voters, independents, voters of color. Those undecided poll respondents may never settle on a candidate, leading them to neglect to turn out at all." Voss continued: "For that reason, a ten-point lead is a compelling lead. Even if it's mathematically possible for enough undecided voters and Sliwa supporters to surge toward Cuomo at the last minute and put him over the top, such shifts rarely happen in real life - especially for an election that has already received so much attention. They're becoming even rarer now that candidates are able to bank a lot of their support before Election Day through early voting, as Mamdani apparently has been doing." What Happens Next The New York City mayoral election is on November 4, and early voting is already underway.
