Keys to victory for Saturday afternoon’s ACC contest between No. 24 Virginia and Louisville.
Virginia
Finish through the end of the bout: In each of Virginia’s two most recent encounters with the Cardinals, the Cavaliers were tantalizingly close to pulling off upset wins. Two years ago, UVa led by 7 points with 8 minutes left at Louisville, only to give up a game-tying and a go-ahead score on two long touchdowns. A season ago in Charlottesville, Louisville’s touchdown with 1:55 remaining propelled it ahead for a 24-20 victory. These two teams have played close, memorable contests in the last two years and UVa should expect the 2025 installment of the series to be no different. Given the Cavaliers’ upgraded talent and depth this fall, they are more equipped to withstand a full four quarters against Louisville. They need to prove they can do it and finish strong through the end of the game, just like they did last week in their two-overtime triumph against Florida State.
Swarm to Brown: Louisville running back Isaac Brown was dealing with a lower-leg injury that limited him to one carry in the Cardinals’ Sept. 20 win over Bowling Green. He returned to a more regular workload last Saturday against Pittsburgh, but rushed for just 20 yards on 14 carries. UVa’s defense must swarm to Brown when he touches the ball, because any time he’s given the opportunity to run with it, he can change the game in an instant. He has recorded touchdown runs this season of 31 yards, 68 yards, and 78 yards. Last year, against the Cavaliers, Brown rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Those returning UVa defenders, like defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter and linebackers Kam Robinson and James Jackson, understand exactly how dangerous Brown can be and that it’ll take 11 defenders rallying to tackle him.
Continue to target the TE in red zone: One interesting development within the Cavaliers’ offense, which is eighth in the FBS for scoring and fifth for total yards, is how their tight ends are becoming legitimate options inside the red zone. In each of the last four games, a UVa tight end caught a touchdown — Sage Ennis against N.C. State, Stanford and Florida State and John Rogers against William & Mary. Those four TDs by tight ends give the Hoos more touchdown receptions by tight ends this year than any of the previous three seasons under coach Tony Elliott and offensive coordinator Des Kitchings. And with how many playmakers the Cavaliers have on offense, sometimes the opposing defense can overlook Ennis, Dakota Twitty or Rogers. It’s smart scheming by Kitchings and recognition by quarterback Chandler Morris to throw to the open tight end. UVa should keep that up against the Cardinals’ talented defense.
Louisville
Pressure and contain Morris: Louisville’s three sacks per game are the second most in the ACC, and the Cardinals have a plethora of pass rushers who’ve found their way to opposing signal-callers this fall. Ten different Cardinals have been credited with at least half a sack, and standout defensive end Clev Lubin, a transfer from Coastal Carolina, leads the way with 3.5 sacks on the year. If Morris has shown any vulnerability, it’s been on the few occasions in which he’s been pressured. In the second quarter of last week’s win for UVa over Florida State, Morris rolled right and threw down the field when he was pressured, but his pass was forced, underthrown and intercepted. In Week 2, some pressure that pushed Morris right forced him to throw into the end zone, where the pass was intercepted and sealed the Hoos’ loss against N.C. State with a minute remaining.
Win the turnover battle: Under third-year coach Jeff Brohm’s watch, Louisville is 15-0 when it wins the turnover battle. And this season, the Cardinals lead the ACC in the stat category and have a +3 turnover margin. Last week to beat Pittsburgh, Louisville forced three turnovers, all of which came in the second half, as the Cardinals rallied to come from behind and knock off the Panthers. Standout linebacker T.J. Quinn, as well as fellow linebacker Antonio Watts, each have two interceptions.
Start faster than last week: The Cardinals were down 17-0 at the end of the first quarter against Pittsburgh. That cannot happen this week against UVa, which has a much better offense than the Panthers and can keep piling on if it jumps ahead by multiple scores by the end of the first quarter. So, Brohm’s bunch will be seeking a faster start to avoid having to make a desperate, edge-of-your-seat comeback. The Cardinals also fell behind against both Bowling Green and James Madison to start their games earlier this fall. That’s a bad habit to get into, especially with the Hoos and their offensive firepower on the other side in this tilt.
Greg Madia
gmadia@dailyprogress.com
@GregMadia on X
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Greg Madia
UVa Sports Reporter
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