By Ruth Mosalski
Copyright walesonline
It has been far from plain sailing for Keir Starmer as the UK’s Prime Minister. Scandals, missteps, and unpopular policies have besieged his tenure in Number 10 and now people are seriously asking questions about whether he can survive the full parliamentary term. In the wake of disastrous new polling for Labour in Wales, there are now multiple voices – inside the party and out – suggesting that the Prime Minister’s future now depends on what happens in Wales. Labour’s dominance in Wales goes back decades. It has an unbroken streak of 28 consecutive Westminster elections as the largest party in terms of both seats won and vote share, and a perfect record in all six Senedd elections since Welsh devolution, their dominance is unmatched internationally. And yet, the latest poll for Wales shows that is in serious peril. In 2021 it had 40% vote share and won 30 of the possible 60 seats. The poll shows that in 2026, the party is on course for 14% of the vote share and could win 11 or 12 seats. Their leader, Eluned Morgan’s seat is one of those in jeopardy, as is health minister Jeremy Miles’. SInce the last poll five months ago, Labour has lost a further 4% of support. The new look Senedd from May 2026 sees changes to constituencies, and the First Minister’s regional seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire will no longer exist. In August, in a WalesOnline interview she admitted her future wasn’t certain, but said she would remain “true” to herself. “I have to be able to be true to myself. So whatever happens, I’ve got to live with myself. In the future, whether I win or whether I don’t win, I have to be able to be true to myself,” she said. At the weekend, Rosena Alin-Khan, a Labour MP, said that May’s elections – including Scottish devolved elections and English council ones – were now the defining test of Sir Keir’s leadership. The reaction to this latest poll was clear from political commentators. Lewis Goodall, host of the News Agents podcast, wrote on X that the poll was “catastrophic”. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here “Catastrophic @ITVWales polling from @YouGov showing Labour cratering in Wales in a distant third for the Senedd. Straight Plaid/Reform battle. * Plaid 30% (n/c) * Reform 29% (+4) * Labour 14% (-4) * Conservatives 11% (-2) * Lib Dem 6% (-1) * Green 6% (+1) If realised could well be terminal for Starmer. It’s Wales, not Scotland which could finish him next year. Labour have not only dominated the Senedd since its creation in 1999 but won every election in Wales for a century.” James Heale from the Spectator said: “More dire news for Starmer as a new ITV Wales poll shows he is on course to be the first Labour leader to lose an election in Wales for 100 years”.
