Copyright nltimes
While the ANP’s preliminary forecast has the D66 and PVV tied for the largest party at 26 seats each, D66 leader Rob Jetten will likely lead the first serious attempt to form the new Cabinet. On election night, he expressed a clear preference for a coalition within the “broad political center.” Many parties have ruled out working with Geert Wilders and his far-right PVV even before the elections. With “broad political center,” Jetten meant his party working with the VVD, GroenLinks-PvdA, and CDA. According to the latest exit polls, that combination will have 86 of the 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament - a clear majority. But whether that will work depends on the VVD. During the election campaign, VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz repeatedly said that she will not form a Cabinet with GroenLinks-PvdA. Whether that will change with Frans Timmermans’ departure is not yet clear. Yeşilgöz also promised that she would not touch the mortgage interest deduction. All three other parties had phasing the tax benefit for homeowners out in their election programs. Yeşilgöz continuously made her preference for a center-right Cabinet clear. So a coalition with D66, VVD, CDA, and JA21, which is forecast to climb from 1 to 9 seats in parliament. According to the current forecast, that combination would hold 75 seats, one short of a majority. But that collaboration is also not an immediately obvious success. JA21 and D66 have vastly different views on several topics, including education budget cuts and gas extraction in Groningen. JA21 leader Joost Eerdmans is eager to join a center-right coalition, so he may be willing to compromise in order to participate in the government. The VVD is in the fortunate position that it can wait and see what happens. If Jetten’s first attempt for a center Cabinet fails, JA21 is the only party that will get him close to a majority. Though that approach would mean another drawn-out formation process, dashing the hopes of several politicians who wanted a new Cabinet sworn in by the end of the year. The CDA, which is forecast to win 18 seats (+13), could also throw a spanner in the works, specifically when it comes to cooperation with the VVD. Traditionally, the two parties are close friends and have worked well together in the last two Rutte Cabinets. But the CDA also suffered significant losses due to its participation in those Cabinets. CDA leader Henri Bontenbal kept his cards close to his chest on election night, but he did lose his cool with Yeşilgöz during the last election debate on Tuesday when the VVD leader asked him again to choose between a left-wing and a center-right Cabinet. Voters are “fed up to the bone” of the “VVD’s political games,” Bontenbal said. “You opened the door for Wilders and plunged the country into chaos.”
