Jets at Dolphins prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats
The battle to climb out of the cellar in the AFC East is Monday Night in South Beach when the New York Jets (0-3) take the field at Hard Rock Stadium against the Miami Dolphins (0-3).
Not much was expected of either of these teams this season, but this week is a must win for each side as the Jets look to show signs of moving in the right direction under first-year coach Aaron Glenn while Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel is seemingly clinging to a thread in his fourth season in Miami.
The Dolphins hung with the Bills in Orchard Park last Thursday for a little more than three quarters but ultimately lost 31-21. The Buffalo defense held Tua Tagovailoa in check limiting him to just 146 passing yards.
Like the Dolphins, the Jets were competitive against a division leader last weekend before ultimately losing to Tampa Bay, 29-27. With Justin Fields sidelined with a concussion, Tyrod Taylor stepped under center and rallied the Jets to 21 fourth quarter points but ultimately fell short. Fields is expected back this weekend.
Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between these AFC East rivals.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Game Details and How to watch the Jets at the Dolphins live Monday
Date: Monday, September 29, 2025
Time: 7:15PM EST
Site: Hard Rock Stadium
City: Miami Gardens, FL
Network/Streaming: ESPN
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Game odds for the Jets at the Dolphins
The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: New York Jets (+130), Miami Dolphins (-155)
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Total: 45.5 points
This game opened at Dolphins -3.0 with the Game Total set at 43.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Quarterback Matchup for New York at Miami
Jets Expected Starting QB: Justin Fields
Last Game: 9/14 vs. Buffalo – 3-11 (27.3%), 27yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, Sacked 2 times, 5 carries for 49yds
Season Totals: 2GP, 19-33 (57.6%), 245yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, Sacked 3 times, 17 carries for 97yds
Dolphins Expected Starting QB: Tua Tagovailoa
Last Game: 9/18 at Buffalo – 22-34 (64.7%), 146yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 carries for 10yds
Season Totals: 3GP, 62-89 (69.7%), 575yds, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, Sacked 8 times, 3 carries for 17 yards
Jets at Dolphins team stats, betting trends
The Dolphins are on a 9-game winning streak at home against the Jets
The Jets had a 3-6 road record against the spread last season
The Over is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 games against AFC East opponents
Jets Player Injuries
QB Justin Fields (concussion) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
LB Jermaine Johnson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
WR Josh Reynolds (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
CB Jarvis Brownless Jr. (ankle) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
S Tony Adams (hip) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
CB Sauce Gardner (concussion) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
DT Jay Tufele (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
LB Quincy Williams (shoulder) was placed on IR on Tuesday and has been declared OUT of Monday’s game
Dolphins Player Injuries
TE Darren Waller (hip) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
WR Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
CB Storm Duck (ankle) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
CB Jason Marshall Jr. (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
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Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): New York Jets ML (+130)
The Tua regression continues while the Dolphins defense remains a bottom 3 unit in the NFL as the home Dolphins draw an underrated Jets team that can push the Fins off the line of scrimmage and take advantage of their weakened secondary. Taylor or Fields are equally likely to give the Jets a puncher’s chance to pull off the upset as small dogs.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Jets and the Dolphins:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the New York Jets at +2.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 45.5.
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