Vice President J.D. Vance faces an uphill climb to win Pennsylvania in the 2028 presidential election, according to a new poll.
The Quinnipiac University survey, conducted between September 25 and 29, shows Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro ahead of Vance in a hypothetical matchup, securing 53 percent of the vote to 43 percent.
The poll was conducted on 1,579 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Vance and Shapiro for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The results suggest Shapiro, a two-term governor, could be a strong contender on the national stage if he chooses to run in 2028.
For Vance, the findings underscore the challenges he faces in expanding his appeal beyond the Republican base in the key swing state.
What To Know
The poll highlights strong party divides: Democrats back Shapiro by an overwhelming 97 percent to one percent, while Republicans support Vance 89 percent to 10 percent.
But the real blow comes from independents — important swing voters — who break decisively for Shapiro by 58 percent to 33 percent.
Shapiro also outperforms Vance in personal favorability. The governor is viewed positively by 58 percent of voters, while just 28 percent view him unfavorably, and only 11 percent said they had not heard enough about him.
Vance, in contrast, is underwater: 43 percent view him favorably, 47 percent unfavorably, and eight percent said they did not know enough about him.
In April, Vance hinted during a Fox & Friends appearance that he would consider running in 2028. “When we get to that point, I’ll talk to the president. We’ll figure out what we want to do. But the way that I think about it is, if we do a good job, the politics take care of themselves,” Vance said.
“There’s so much to do and I don’t really think that much about what happens in three and a half years,” he added.
A month later, Vance told NBC News: “If I do end up running in 2028, I’m not entitled to it.”
Shapiro has not announced whether he will run in 2028, but has been asked repeatedly about the possibility. At an event in Pennsylvania in 2024, he told reporters: “I think the most important thing I can do is do my job… I love being governor… I’m going to continue to do this work… ignore the noise.”
In an appearance on Real Time with Bill Maher in March, he declined to confirm whether he intended to run in 2028, saying he was not “an expert in D.C. stuff.”
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is among the largest prizes on the Electoral College map. Both parties devote huge resources to the state due to its history of flipping between Democrats and Republicans in close contests.
In 2024, President Donald Trump carried the state in the presidential race, winning around 50.4 percent of the vote, compared to Kamala Harris’ 48.7 percent.
What People Are Saying
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said: “With the caveats that it’s a long way off and it’s a purely hypothetical race, native son Shapiro looks to have a healthy lead over potential opponent Vice President Vance.”
Aaron Evans, president of Winning Republican Strategies, told Newsweek: “Vance has stood firmly with President Trump in advancing the America First agenda. His leadership and visibility are clearly resonating with Republican voters — especially as he’s been more front-and-center in the news cycle than members of the Trump family.”
But he said that “the 2028 race is three years away, and the field will grow.” He added that Vance could draw “strong support,” but he is not “guaranteed the nomination this early.”
“A lot will depend on the rest of this term and how successful Vance and Trump are in fixing the economy, addressing global threats, securing our Southern border, and reducing crime in our big cities. Vance holds an early edge, but the race — and its dynamics — will continue to evolve. It’s far too soon to predict the outcome,” he said.