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Democrat Jay Jones’ chances of winning the Virginia attorney general race suddenly surged just hours before polls closed on Tuesday, according to betting odds website Polymarket. Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Jones and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares for comment via email. Why It Matters Jones trailed Miyares in polling and betting odds for weeks ahead of Election Day after his 2022 text messages suggesting political violence against a Republican lawmaker in the state were reported by the National Review. The scandal sparked bipartisan backlash against him, and polls that previously gave him an advantage reversed. By Election Day, most surveys gave Miyares an advantage over Jones. What To Know Jones’ chances experienced a last-minute shift on Polymarket, where Miyares had been favored for nearly a month. The Republican’s chances peaked on October 31, when he had a 75 percent chance of victory. His odds have fallen since, but he still remained favored heading into Election Day. However, betting odds reversed just before 3 p.m. Tuesday in favor of Jones. By 4:30 p.m., Jones had a 64 percent chance of winning, while Miyares’ chances had plunged to only 37 percent. Jay Jones attends a rally in Norfolk, Virginia, on November 1. Another betting odds site, Kalshi, told a similar story. Miyares had a 55 percent chance of winning throughout the morning. But by 6 p.m. ET, Jones was favored, with a 65 percent chance of winning. Kalshi head of politics Jaron Zhou pointed to turnout data as spurring the change. “As the day had gone on, there’s warning signs that GOP turnout is not where it needs to be, while Dem areas (like Falls Church in Nova) are surging. Odds of a Dem sweep in Virginia now at 65%,” he wrote. Most polling favored Miyares, but pointed to a close race, in the final stretch of the campaign. An AtlasIntel poll, conducted among 1,325 likely voters from October 25 to October 30, showed Miyares up 1 point (48 percent to 47 percent). A poll from The Hill and Emerson College, however, showed Jones up 2 points (51 percent to 49 percent). It surveyed 860 likely voters on October 30 and October 31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, was favored in the gubernatorial race. Polymarket gave her a 99 percent chance of winning against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican. Jones faced significant criticism over a text message he sent in 2022, when he was a member of the Virginia state legislature, to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner, which read, “Three people, two bullets Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot Gilbert gets two bullets to the head Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.” The text was referring to former GOP Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates Todd Gilbert, according to the National Review. Jones has since apologized for the texts, but they have continued to follow his campaign. “I sincerely, from the bottom of my heart, want to express my remorse and my regret for what happened and what I said,” Jones said in an interview with WRIC, a Richmond-based TV news outlet. “That language has no place in our discourse, and I am so remorseful for what happened.” What People Are Saying Jones, in an X post Saturday: “This campaign has always been about one thing: putting Virginians first. Safer communities. Lower costs. Leadership that stands up for you.” Miyares, in an X post Sunday: “Virginians — Republicans and Democrats alike — are rallying around my reelection campaign because they know Jay Jones’ conduct does not reflect their values or the character of our Commonwealth.” What Happens Next Polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET.
