Copyright Newsweek
Republican Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares' odds of getting reelected next week have reached a new high on website Polymarket. Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email on Friday for comment. Why It Matters The 2025 race for Virginia attorney general has become one of the most closely scrutinized state contests in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election. The contest is being watched as a potential bellwether for national political trends, especially as debates over political rhetoric and violence take center stage following the recent scandal involving Democratic nominee Jay Jones. With Virginia often considered a swing state, the race’s outcome could influence both state and national political calculations heading into 2026 and beyond. Recent revelations about past text messages sent by Jones have seemingly shifted public opinion and put the race’s outcome in question, signaling larger concerns of accountability and conduct among political leaders. What To Know According to Polymarket, Miyares had a 71 percent chance of winning the race compared to Jones' 29 percent on Friday evening. The incumbent later jumped to 74 percent compared to Jones' 25 percent, around 6:13 p.m. This is Miyares' highest percentage since the race has been tracked by the site. Miyares also hit 71 percent around 3:30 p.m. Thursday. The last time Jones was in the lead was on October 8, the site shows, with 55 percent compared to Miyares' 46 percent. Jones has seen his polling and betting odds shift rapidly following the leak of private messages he sent in 2022. In these texts, Jones discussed hypothetical violence against then-Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert and made further derogatory remarks about Gilbert’s family. What People Are Saying Jones, on X Friday: "We’re in the final days of the election, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Let’s show up, get out the vote, and shape our future together." Miyares, on X earlier this month: "Virginians are good and decent people, and they expect their leaders to carry themselves with civility, decorum, and integrity. That’s why I’m asking you to rehire me to serve as your Attorney General for four more years." Republican strategist Brad Todd, on X Friday: "Virginia Democrat Party staff knows that even partisan Dem voters are disgusted by Jay Jones. That’s why their GOTV literature at the doors says 'vote your entire ballot.' They’re worried." Republican Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, on X earlier this month: "In the wake of Charlie Kirk’s horrific assassination, it’s incredibly disturbing that no Virginia Democrat has called on their statewide candidate Jay Jones to step away after he called for the murder of the Republican House Speaker, his children, and a few cops. The left always says violence has no place in our politics, unless it’s politically inconvenient and then it has a place in their party. They’ve made that clear in their continued support of Jay Jones." What Happens Next Virginia's attorney general election is set for November 4, with early voting underway since early October. The race’s result will likely shape the state's legal and political framework for years to come, and may influence national debates about political speech, accountability for public officials and the boundaries of campaign rhetoric.
