Copyright Newsweek
Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, said she is “seriously weighing” a Senate run in the Lone Star state as polls suggest she would be a favorite in the Democratic primary. Newsweek reached out to Crockett’s campaign and office for comment via email. Why It Matters Democrats are facing tough math in next year’s Senate elections, forcing them to turn to conservative states like Texas to win a majority next year. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points—and North Carolina—which supported President Donald Trump by about three points—as their top opportunities to flip. But no other Republican senator seat in Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for reelection next year, meaning Democrats must compete in states like Texas, where polls point to a potentially competitive race, to have a chance at winning control of the chamber. Crockett’s potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, where several prominent lawmakers are already vying for the nomination. What to Know Crockett, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, has garnered national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump and other Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris named her as a Democrat who is “authentic” when discussing future leadership of the party. She told Politico’s Dasha Burns this week that she is mulling a potential Senate bid. “I am seriously weighing it to the extent that I am about to spend a lot of money to get data,” she said. “I’m a data-driven person. I will tell you that I personally believe that Texas needs to do something different if they want a different result. That’s just the bottom line.” Crockett said she has had “multiple” conversations with a potential campaign director and is weighing who will be the Republican nominee. She does not believe any Democrat could defeat incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn. If she runs, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, the Democrats' 2024 Senate nominee, in the primary. Representative Joaquin Castro and former Representative Beto O’Rourke have also been floated as potential candidates, though neither has jumped into the race yet. Crockett led the most recent poll of the Texas Democratic primary race, which found her with 31 percent. Talarico and O’Rourke followed with 25 percent each, while 13 percent said they would vote for Allred. Six percent were unsure of who they would support. In the general election polling, Crockett trailed Republican candidates. Cornyn led Crockett by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent), while Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 2-point lead against her (49 percent to 47 percent). Representative Wesley Hunt led Crockett by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent). The poll surveyed 1,650 respondents from September 19 to October 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points. O’Rourke held a lead over Crockett in a University of Texas at Tyler poll. Thirty-one percent said they’d vote for the former Congressman, while 29 percent said they would cast their ballots for Crockett. Allred had 25 percent support, while Castro had 13 percent. It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17 to September 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed similar results. In that poll, 27 percent of respondents said they’d back O’Rourke, while 26 percent said they’d vote for Crockett. Allred, Talarico and Castro followed at 13 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively. The poll surveyed 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Kalshi’s betting market gives Talarico the best chance of winning the party’s nomination at 50 percent. It gives Crockett a 25 percent and Allred a 22 percent chance of winning the primary. What People Are Saying Crockett told Politico’s Dasha Burns: “By the time we start spending money, I think it’s less about people learning, ‘Oh there’s a Jasmine Crockett. Who is she?’ And it’s more about, ‘Do we like her enough to go out and knock doors, to make phone calls, to send text messages, to tell our neighbors, to get people riled up?’” Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek earlier in October: “Both in rhetoric and actions, Crockett and O’Rourke are seen as really fighting against the Trump administration and Republicans more generally. That’s something that endears them to Democratic primary voters, who don’t really want to see a pragmatist.” What Happens Next Whether Crockett will announce a run for the Texas Senate is yet to be seen. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.
