By Anna Commander

Copyright newsweek

Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for New Jersey governor, is eight points down against Democratic candidate Representative Mikie Sherrill, a new poll published on Friday shows.

Newsweek has reached out to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) via text message and the Republican National Committee (RNC) via online form on Friday for comment.

Why It Matters

The Garden State’s gubernatorial race has become one of the most closely watched political contests in the country. As one of only two states holding a gubernatorial election this year, the other being Virginia, its outcome could serve as a critical bellwether for both parties ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Long a Democratic stronghold, New Jersey’s margins and increasing Republican competitiveness have placed national attention on whether Democrats can sustain their dominance or if Republicans will flip the governor’s office, signaling a potential shift in national political strategies. Recent polling has intensified this scrutiny, highlighting both broader partisan trends and the impact of local controversies.

What To Know

In Friday’s John Zogby Strategies poll, Ciattarelli has 42 percent of the vote compared to Sherrill’s 50 percent. Sherrill landed 88 percent of the Democratic Party in the poll, compared to Ciattarelli’s 86 percent of the Republican Party. Independents were split with 45 percent backing Sherrill and 40 percent backing Ciattarelli. The poll shows 16 percent are undecided.

When asked who they think would win the governorship today, 44 percent of voters said Sherrill while 37 percent said Ciattarelli.

The poll surveyed 912 likely New Jersey voters from September 30 to October 2 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

In a recent survey by conservative pollster Save Jersey, conducted by Valcour, Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by two points, 47 to 45, with 7 percent remaining unsure.

The Valcour survey was conducted between September 23-24 with a sample size of 1,274 likely New Jersey voters. The results of this poll are within the margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Complicating the campaign is the recent news of largely unredacted military records of Sherrill that were reportedly released to an ally of Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s military records, which have ignited a privacy and ethics debate, could potentially shift the trajectory of the contest in its final weeks.

The documents, released by the National Archives, included disciplinary information and reportedly revealed that the congresswoman was barred from walking at her 1994 U.S. Naval Academy graduation for declining to report classmates involved in a cheating scandal.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called for a criminal investigation, saying the release may have violated federal privacy laws. In turn, Sherrill’s campaign blamed Ciattarelli, saying the distribution of her file reflects a “coordinated political assault.”

People wait inside of a hotel ballroom for New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at his watch party on November 2, 2021, in Bridgewater, New Jersey. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

What People Are Saying

President Donald Trump on Truth Social in September: “Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike [sic] Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey. Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!! President DJT.”

Managing partner Jeremy Zogby said in Friday’s poll: “The key takeaway from the poll is the large number of independents who remain on the fence who they’ll vote for (16%) come Election Day and the nearly one-quarter of independents unsure which candidate will resolve the most critical issues, crime and state taxes. Watch for this group to decide during the final stretch—October.”

What Happens Next?

Early voting in New Jersey begins October 25, and Election Day is November 4. Both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in the final weeks as each side seeks to sway undecided voters and address the fallout from recent controversies.