Copyright Newsweek
New Jersey voters will elect their next governor on Tuesday, as polls point to a tight race between Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Newsweek reached out to the Sherrill and Ciattarelli campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is a bellwether for the mood of the country ahead of the 2026 midterms. The party outside of the White House typically performs well in these races—that was the case four years ago when Ciattarelli nearly ousted incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. However, the race remains close despite President Donald Trump’s approval rating falling since January, according to polls, most of which have given Sherrill a modest lead. Republicans overperforming in the off-year elections, which also includes a gubernatorial race in Virginia, would be a red flag for Democrats ahead of the midterms, when they are hoping to flip seats across the country. What to Know Sherrill, who currently represents a suburban congressional district in the north of the state, has cast herself as a more moderate Democrat, while Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state lawmaker, has embraced and been endorsed by Trump. Candidates have emphasized issues of affordability in the state. Polls give Sherrill an edge. RealClearPolitics’ aggregate shows her up by about three points over Ciattarelli, while a Race to the WH aggregate showed her up just about four points. Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek that traditional polling “has shown Sherrill with a lead of between about 4 and 7 points, and the early voting and vote by mail numbers have been consistent with that.” “Right now, it looks like Democrats will have a buffer of around 280,000 votes going into Election Day, a little bigger than in past years, and while it’s plausible that Ciattarelli could win Election Day votes, it would be unprecedented for him to win by 300,000 votes. I’m always open to being surprised by what happens on Election Day, but we’re just not seeing anything in the data that suggests a huge surge for Ciattarelli,” he added. The latest poll from AtlasIntel showed the two candidates essentially tied—it gave Sherrill 50.2 percent of the vote, compared to Ciattarelli’s 49.3 percent. It surveyed 1,639 likely voters from October 25-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. An Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill poll also showed Sherrill up one point over Ciattarelli (49 to 48 percent). It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 25-28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. A Suffolk University poll showed Sherrill up four points (46 to 42 percent). It surveyed 500 likely voters from October 26-29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. A Fox News poll gave Sherrill a larger lead. It found her up seven points (52 to 45 percent). It surveyed 956 likely voters from October 24-28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Cassino said the polling narrowing is typical, as it occurs when partisan voters “come home.” It also has to do with methodology, as some pollsters like AtlasIntel and Emerson include an “online opt-in sample,” which tend to include unemployed men who lean toward Trump, he said. “It’s possible that these are groups not being picked up enough in normal telephone and text samples, and so they’re more accurate, but I’m skeptical. Other polls, using traditional methodologies, haven’t shown the race to be nearly as close,” Cassino said. What People Are Saying Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek: “There’s more enthusiasm in the Republican base for Ciattarelli than there is among Democrats for Sherrill, but the key factor driving Democratic turnout isn’t pro-Sherrill, it’s anti-Trump. Democrats might be lukewarm about Sherrill, but they’ll crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. The advantage given by Democratic GOTV machines in urban areas of New Jersey has been declining in recent years, but there are enough powerful county machines left to get votes out for the Democrats whether the candidates is doing enough or not. The Ciattarelli theory of the election relies mostly on depressing turnout, trying to get Democrats in areas like Paterson to stay home, as they did in 2024, rather than trying to mobilize them for Republicans.” Mikie Sherrill wrote Sunday on X: “Unlike @Jack4NJ, I'm working to make New Jersey a better state for every New Jerseyan, not just Donald Trump's inner circle.” Jack Ciattarelli wrote Saturday on X: “New Jersey families are getting squeezed from every direction. We’ve got the highest property taxes in America. Electric bills skyrocketing. Homes so expensive that young families can’t even afford to start here. Childcare costs through the roof. Insurance rates that feel like highway robbery. And what’s Trenton doing? Spending your money like it’s Monopoly cash. We can fix this — but only if we finally say enough to the party that created this mess.” Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, a Democrat who lost to Sherrill in the primary, wrote to X over the weekend: "NJ may actually have an upset. This is prob great news for Jack’s team as we are a society that likes underdogs and comebacks by nature. This is prob the last public poll. FYI In the 2025 update of pollster ratings by Silver Bulletin [which is associated with Nate Silver’s team], AtlasIntel received an A+ rating and was ranked #1 in overall pollster quality in the U.S. for the 2024 election cycle." What Happens Next? Voting is set for Tuesday. Residents can vote between 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Forecasters give Sherrill an advantage. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Leans Democratic.
