Copyright newstatesman
Every seven years Ireland gets to elect a constitutional monarch – a nominally impotent figurehead who meets and greets the great and good; who makes the occasional statement of solidarity or condolence; and who shouldn’t freestyle on behalf of the Irish people on matters of geopolitics. Their job is to be above politics, and to disregard whatever electoral coalition elevated them to the office in order to be a president for all, and other such necessary cliches. Ireland’s new president, Catherine Connolly recently likened Germany’s increased arms spending with the 1930s. She has come under scrutiny for her “fact-finding” trip to Assad-era Syria in 2018; she is loose with deploying the word “genocide”; she believes Nato are warmongerers; she said Hamas is “part of the fabric of the Palestinian people”; and most concerning to the europhile establishment in Ireland, she said in 2016 that Brexit was the first step in “exposing” the EU. A high-profile critic gets in touch – “Think Jeremy Corbyn giving the Queen’s Speech”. Connolly comes to the Aras as a standard bearer for the Irish left – with a depleted Labour party, nascent Social Democrat party and resurgent Sinn Fein behind her. The Irish left has, in fact, never been so organised. She defeats the milquetoast Heather Humphreys, or Fine Gael’s answer to the question: how do we lose this election? (Though with record number of spoiled ballots and low turnout of 40% it is hard to call Connolly “popular”). The left is ready to take its sharpened axe to Ireland’s hegemonic centre; the time has come and Connolly’s victory is proof of concept. So they say. It is premature. The electorate do not behave the same way in presidential elections as they do in general elections. It is easier to flirt with radical, or outre, candidates when their job is to cut ribbons and shake hands. When it comes to choosing who decides your tax bill and childcare costs? Ireland’s liberals quietly contact the Conservative in their soul. This does not mean that Ireland’s centre-ish government can rest on its laurels, the country is dissatisfied with their performance. But a vote for Connolly is not a single transferable vote for a left-takeover of Government Buildings. And so, in Connolly’s election we see two emergent views of Ireland. One is of the old fashioned Corbynite left, the Ireland that the country wants to be when the stakes are low. This is how it often works at the luxury belief ballot box – her predecessor Michael D Higgins is of a similar, if gentler, tradition. And the other is of the centrist, turbo-European, technocratic woke capitalists – the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail double act that has held power, in some configuration, as long as the state has lasted. The turgid, plodding, basically competent born-to-rule guys were elected in again and again even during the 14 years of Higgins leftist presidency. Connolly is the id, the government is the ego. The question, then, is what happens if these forces come into direct combat? In the denouement of his tenure, Higgins began stretching the boundaries of the office beyond what anyone reasonable could believe was appropriate: he lectured British people on the legacy of colonialism in the pages of the Guardian; hosted a letter on the presidential website about brokering peace with Russia; used his lectern on Holocaust remembrance day to speak of Gaza) He leaves office as one of the most divisive presidents of the modern Irish state. Connolly might exercise a touch more rhetorical restraint. But if she does not – and continues her direct criticism of government policy from her perch – the attendant impacts will, at least, be interesting to watch play out. Ireland is an economy unusually reliant on external goodwill – as a locus of foreign direct investment from American pharma and tech behemoths. Meanwhile in the White House there is a president — unusually vain, capricious, insecure, reactive, and willing to use blunt economic force for petty ends. I can’t imagine what might happen if Connolly calls Donald Trump – obsessed with the peace prize – a war monger as she has done before. But, “it won’t be pretty” is perhaps the best euphemism I can summon. An economic house of cards is terribly vulnerable to a windbag. And that’s just the economy. Pivot to security. Connolly has recently said Irish people should resist a “trend towards imperialism” in the European Union, as the bloc is becoming “increasingly militarised under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen and the European People’s Party”; that the EU has “lost its moral compass”; and that “the US, England and France are deeply entrenched in an arms industry which causes bloodshed across the world”. Ireland has a small defence force , and little by way of military infrastructure, meanwhile. Whatever one thinks of her positioning, we might be minded to question the logic of launching broadsides at our neighbours when our own security is entirely dependent on them. None of this may matter. Connolly has suggested she understands the diplomatic restraints of the job. But if she does not, Ireland’s id will be at war with its ego and no one will like what that means, not even the Irish left that brought her here. [Further reading: How Catherine Connolly captured Ireland’s imagination]
