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Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Ampem Nyarko says Ghana’s economy is showing strong signs of recovery under President John Dramani Mahama’s administration, citing improved fiscal indicators and renewed investor confidence that have earned international validation through an IMF staff level agreement and a Moody’s credit rating upgrade. Speaking at a press conference in Accra on Monday ahead of the 2026 budget presentation, Nyarko said prudent fiscal management has produced what he described as a significant turnaround in key economic metrics over the past ten months. The government recorded a primary balance surplus of 1.4% of GDP, reduced the fiscal deficit to 1.5%, and lowered public debt to 46.8% as of August 2025, according to the Deputy Minister. “These achievements are not ends in themselves but foundations for sustained recovery and shared prosperity,” Nyarko told reporters gathered for the pre budget briefing. The optimistic assessment comes on the heels of two major international endorsements. Moody’s Ratings upgraded Ghana’s long term foreign currency debt to Caa1 from Caa2 on October 10, citing improved prospects for debt reduction and macroeconomic stabilization under the country’s ongoing IMF supported reform program. The outlook was changed to stable from positive, reflecting growing confidence in Ghana’s fiscal trajectory. The ratings agency said the upgrade reflects continued fiscal consolidation, progress in debt restructuring, and improved foreign reserve buffers, which have strengthened Ghana’s capacity to meet external obligations. “Greater macroeconomic stability and favorable external dynamics are supporting more controlled funding costs and foreign exchange reserve replenishment,” Moody’s noted in its statement. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund reached a staff level agreement with Ghana on the fifth review of its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility program, signaling confidence in the government’s economic management despite inheriting what officials have described as significant fiscal slippages from the previous administration. The IMF program has been crucial in supporting Ghana’s debt restructuring efforts and rebuilding international credibility. Ghana’s new leadership under President Mahama has pursued fiscal consolidation since coming to power in January to stabilize an economy recovering from a debt restructuring. That effort has helped reduce public debt to 629 billion cedis, or 44.9% of gross domestic product at the end of July, from 764 billion cedis or 64.9% of GDP a year earlier. Supported by a surge in bullion prices, Africa’s top gold producer also grew its gross international reserves by 43% to $10.7 billion at the end of August, bolstering its ability to meet external payments. The fiscal improvements come despite revelations that the previous administration left behind substantial challenges. The 2024 central government budget deficit widened to 7.9% of GDP on a commitment basis, overshooting a targeted deficit of 4.2% of GDP. The government also disclosed GH¢67.5 billion in gross accumulated arrears to domestic contractors and suppliers in 2024, representing what Nyarko and other officials have characterized as a pattern of fiscal mismanagement. Moody’s acknowledged these challenges but expressed confidence that nascent improvements to Ghana’s fiscal framework will help anchor more prudent fiscal policy. The presentation of the 2025 budget revealed marked fiscal slippages left by the outgoing administration, a recurrent issue for Ghana during election years. However, analysts expect the government’s primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP for this year to be successfully met and maintained in 2026, contributing to debt reduction. The fiscal objectives are underpinned by March 2025 amendments to the Public Financial Management Act, which introduce binding operational rules designed in consultation with the IMF. These include maintaining an annual primary surplus of at least 1.5% of GDP on a commitment basis going forward, and reducing the public debt to GDP ratio to 45% or lower by 2034. A new fiscal council will be operational by 2026, and if successfully implemented would strengthen future compliance and accountability. Ghana’s economy has demonstrated signs of robust recovery in 2025, with single digit inflation, a more stable cedi, and increased investor confidence. The fiscal position continues improving as the government sustains primary surpluses and tightens expenditure controls in accordance with the Fiscal Responsibility Framework. Economic growth has accelerated following the 2023 domestic debt restructuring, reaching 5.7% in 2024 and 6.3% in the first half of 2025. Moody’s upgrade is expected to lower borrowing costs, boost market sentiment, and improve access to international capital markets, which are key steps toward sustaining growth and completing ongoing debt restructuring efforts with private creditors. The stable outlook balances baseline expectations of continued reduction in the government’s debt metrics and gradual domestic financing normalization against the risks of renewed fiscal overruns and policy slippages. Deputy Minister Nyarko, who represents Asuogyaman constituency and previously served as Chairman of Parliament’s Budget Committee, has been at the forefront of defending the government’s economic policies since his appointment by President Mahama in February 2025. He has repeatedly emphasized that the administration’s focus on restoring macroeconomic stability lays the groundwork for job creation and sustained economic growth. The upcoming 2026 budget, which Nyarko said would consolidate these gains, is expected to prioritize funding for various job creation initiatives such as the National Apprenticeship program, One Million Coders, and Edwumawura program. The government plans to provide an enabling environment for the private sector to thrive and spearhead job creation efforts, addressing what a recent World Bank report described as Ghana’s challenge of translating strong economic growth into decent job creation. However, challenges remain. Ghana’s credit constraints at the Caa1 rating level include the government’s limited financing options and reliance on short term domestic issuances, weak debt affordability exacerbated by a narrow revenue base, and high susceptibility to exchange rate and commodity price volatility. Moody’s also noted ongoing social and environmental challenges, including moderate to high risks from climate related shocks affecting agriculture, limited access to quality housing and healthcare, and constrained fiscal policy options due to persistent debt service obligations. For now, the combination of improved fiscal metrics, international endorsements, and a more stable macroeconomic environment provides the Mahama administration with momentum heading into the 2026 budget presentation. Whether this translates into tangible improvements in living standards for ordinary Ghanaians will depend on the government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline while investing in productive sectors that generate jobs and income opportunities. The Deputy Minister’s confidence reflects a broader narrative the government has been building about economic recovery and responsible management. With the 2028 elections serving as what Moody’s called “the first tangible test” of the new fiscal framework’s effectiveness through political cycles, the stakes for maintaining the current trajectory remain high.
