By Ben Walker

Copyright newstatesman

The deputy leadership contest is absolutely not, promise press officers, the candidates and gossiping parliamentarians, a proxy war between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer.

And yet, polling suggests certain similarities in voting patterns between the real deputy contest and the hypothetical leadership one. Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor, would top the poll among Labour members in a vote for the top job today. And the candidate he has been most vocal about, Lucy Powell, just happens to be establishing a lead over the candidate Starmer saw fit to keep in cabinet as Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson.

The members know it. And more of us paid to be critical about this sort of stuff know it, too. Starmer’s dramatic election success last year does not secure him his office in perpetuity. The muddy affair that took out Peter Mandelson as US ambassador will be hard to scrub clean. Combined with apocalyptic poll ratings for formerly safe-seat backbenchers – not least in Wales, not lost by Labour in more than a century – and everyone in the party begins to dread or dream of regicide.

But if not Starmer, then whom? If Starmer was pushed out, who is best placed to save Labour?

Andy Burnham

Let’s get this one out of the way. I interviewed Burnham for a fundraiser in Chester in 2023. Sat across from me, on a literal throne, was a man who didn’t necessarily seem in a hurry but was clearly hungry for more.

He is the King in the North, the saviour of the soft left, and, it appears, the spearhead of this new Starmer-critical movement, Mainstream. He has his core supporters. He is near unanimously liked by the party membership. And unlike every other potential contender for leader, he has public appeal. Whereas everyone else is reviled by Reform voters, Burnham is only disliked. And that’s something.

The problem for Burnham is that Starmer’s demise may come too soon: the Greater Manchester mayor’s term ends in 2028. Unlike Boris Johnson, who became MP for Uxbridge in 2015 despite still being mayor of London, the Greater Manchester mayoralty includes a restrictive mandate. And unless Burnham abandons his office prematurely (which he has previously said he would not do), there will be no return to parliament for him until after May 2028.

Rumours that the now suspended MP for Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne may tender his resignation to coincide only upon Burnham’s release from his current responsibility are widespread. But 2028 is a long way off. Labour and the rank and file might not be able to wait until then. This, inevitably, brings us to other candidates.

Yet there are not many feasible options. Favourability is slim. Many of them divide party activists.

Wes Streeting

The Health Secretary is a polished performer. Members give him positive marks for his departmental role so far. But more than two in five members still look upon him negatively. The challenge for Starmerites like Streeting is that the Starmer that was elected by members in 2020 was a very different politician to the Starmer today. The Labour Party remains too left wing to support a Streeting-style candidacy, despite his manoeuvring on Gaza.

Only if the Parliamentary Labour Party nominates a no-hoper to run against Streeting, or if he wins so many nominations no one else runs, can I see him heading to No 10. Otherwise, no. His side is out of favour with members.

Rachel Reeves

There once was a time when being Chancellor put you in good stead to succeed your neighbour at No 10. Unfortunately, Reeves is not just universally rejected by the voters – she is the least popular cabinet member among the electors who would choose her as party leader, and by extension prime minister. Reeves polled poorly even before the welfare cuts. Now, more than six in ten Labour members have an unfavourable opinion of her.

This is a recurring theme among aspirants to the top job: Streeting, Reeves, Deputy PM David Lammy and the new Technology Secretary Liz Kendall have as many detractors as advocates among the membership. Yvette Cooper, now the foreign Secretary, is also not popular among the irate party membership.

The only “unifiers”? Ed Miliband and the inoffensives, such as Defence Secretary John Healey. The chief secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, and the new Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, were they polled, might also figure in this category.

There lies the key takeaway. If not a saviour – a Burnham – then let it be a safety net: an as-yet untainted, inoffensive Miliband for the 2020s. This mid-decade purgatory is difficult for all high-profile Labour politicians. Now is not the time for a Streeting or a Lammy, who could make things worse for the party. Now is the time for a Keir Starmer who isn’t Keir Starmer.

[See also: Why it’s so difficult to launch a Labour leadership challenge]