Progressive Democrat Zohran Mamdani’s chances to become New York City mayor have increased, especially since incumbent Eric Adams announced he would not drop out of the race.
Odds from Polymarket, a platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, show that the chances of Mamdani defeating former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the city’s closely watched mayoral race are now the strongest they have been since early September (85 percent as of Thursday).
Cuomo’s support has steadily declined since September 5, the day Mayor Eric Adams said he would not drop out of the race, from 18.6 percent to 12.2 percent.
Newsweek has contacted representatives of Mamdani and Cuomo for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Mamdani sent political shock waves across New York in June when he defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Since then, some polls have shown the Queens Assemblymember miles ahead of his opponents, with Mamdani leading among almost all demographics.
President Donald Trump, who has called Mamdani a “communist lunatic,” has said that he would like to see two of the three other main candidates—New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Republican Curtis Sliwa, as well as Cuomo—step aside to solidify the anti-Mamdani vote.
What To Know
On September 5, Mamdani’s chances of winning the mayoral election were at 79.7 percent. Once Adams said he would remain in the race, Mamdani’s odds grew to reach 85 percent at time of writing. That is around 10 percentage points more than when he won the primary election in June.
Adams has a 1 percent chance. Sliwa has a less than 1 percent chance.
Polls have shown Mamdani surging ahead of his opponents. Across five major surveys conducted in early September, the progressive Democrat has consistently had double-digit leads over the former governor, with his support hovering in the mid-40s while Cuomo’s remains mired in the mid-20s.
A CBS News/YouGov poll (September 7–13) put Mamdani at 43 percent to Cuomo’s 28 percent, a 15-point lead. A Marist survey the same week showed Mamdani ahead 45 percent to 24 percent, while Quinnipiac gave him a 22-point lead at 45 percent to 23 percent. An Emerson College poll for PIX11 and The Hill had a nearly identical 43 percent to 28 percent margin, and a New York Times/Siena poll (September 2–6) showed Mamdani leading 46 percent to 24 percent.
Polls show that Mamdani maintains his more than 20-point lead when Cuomo is removed as a candidate.
But when Adams is removed, Mamdani’s lead is cut down—substantially in some polls—suggesting that Cuomo would absorb much of the anti-Mamdani vote in a head-to-head matchup.
The CBS News/YouGov poll found Mamdani at 44 percent to Cuomo’s 30 percent, a 14-point lead. The Marist survey showed a nearly identical result, with Mamdani ahead 46 percent to 30 percent. Quinnipiac University’s poll matched that spread, also giving Mamdani a 46 percent to 30 percent lead.
But the gap narrows in other polls. The Emerson College survey had Mamdani at 47 percent to Cuomo’s 40 percent, just a 7-point lead. The tightest margin came from the New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Mamdani at 48 percent to Cuomo’s 44 percent — a slim 4-point edge.
Adams and Sliwa have repeatedly rejected calls to drop out of the race despite reports that advisers to Trump have discussed offering positions to both men to give Cuomo a better chance at winning the general election and consolidate support against Mamdani.
On Monday, Adams’ spokesperson Todd Shapiro denied that he would be dropping out of the race amid rumors that he will do so by the end of the week. Shapiro said the mayor is “in this race to win it,” News 12 Westchester reported.
“Let me be perfectly clear: any rumor or tweet suggesting Mayor Adams is stepping down this week is complete b******t. These lies are being spread by desperate opponents who can’t match the mayor’s record, his campaign energy, or his support across this city. The truth is Mayor Adams has more than 20 events scheduled this weekend alone, including major rallies and community stops, plus dozens of fundraisers lined up. The campaign is alive, strong, and fully engaged — just like the mayor himself. Eric Adams is in this race to win it, and no amount of fake chatter or political spin will change that.”
Meanwhile, Cuomo has not ruled out dropping out, but has not indicated either way since mid-July, when he said he would stay in the New York City mayor’s race despite his primary loss.
David Schwartz from Gotham Polling and Analytics LLC told Newsweek: “The numbers show that if everyone stays in the race, Mamdani will be tougher to beat.”
Over the weekend, New York Governor Kathy Hochul endorsed Mamdani, marking a significant political alliance between the moderate Democratic governor and the progressive Queens legislator.
New York’s senators, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, have yet to endorse a candidate. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who represents a Brooklyn district, has also stayed on the sidelines.
What People Are Saying
Governor Kathy Hochul on X: “New York City deserves a mayor who will stand up to Donald Trump and make life more affordable for New Yorkers. That’s @ZohranKMamdani.”
Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani responded to Governor Hochul’s endorsement on X: “Thank you @KathyHochul! I’m grateful for the Governor’s support in unifying our party, her resolve in standing up to Trump, and her focus on making New York affordable. I look forward to the great work we will accomplish together. Our movement is only growing stronger.”
Amit Singh Bagga, principal of Public Progress Solutions, told Newsweek in July: “While politics since November 2016—including primary night in NYC this year—has taught us to expect the unexpected, knowing what we know today and provided the field stays even relatively similar, Zohran Mamdani is the next mayor of New York City.”
What Happens Next
The New York City mayoral election is scheduled to take place on November 4, 2025.