UTSA (1-2, 0-0 AAC) at Colorado State (1-1, 0-0 Mountain West)
When/where: 7:30 p.m. Saturday/Canvas Stadium
TV/Radio: FS1/Colorado State Sports Network KUAD 99.1 FM
BetMGM Line: CSU +4.5, 59.5 over/under
Weather: 58 degrees, clear skies
Series History: CSU leads 2-0, with Rams winning 23-14 in Fort Collins in last meeting in 2016
Three storylines
CSU’s ball security: After four fumbles and an interception nearly led to FCS Northern Colorado upsetting the Rams on Sept. 6 in Fort Collins, CSU held on for a 21-17 win thanks to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi’s last-second TD run. With that, CSU became the only team in the nation to win this season despite five-plus turnovers in a game, a feat just three FBS teams accomplished in 2024. It’s hard to imagine the Rams surviving those self-inflicted mistakes against a much better team this week in UTSA.
The Jaxxon Warren Factor: The QB-turned-tight end, when deployed properly, can be a force. He has seven catches for 95 yards and a TD, with all but one of those receptions coming in the loss at Washington. With his 6-foot-8 frame, head coach/OC Jay Norvell needs to make him a more central part of the game plan and get him more targets. Warren is a mismatch against linebackers, safeties and corners, and UTSA’s secondary (130th among FBS teams with 300.3 passing yards allowed per game) is ripe for his picking.
The Henry Challenge: The CSU defense ranks 107th in FBS with 173 rushing yards allowed per game, and the Rams are in for a significant test against UTSA star tailback Robert Henry Jr. The senior leads FBS in rushing yards (480), yards per game (160.0), yards per carry (10.21), total TDs (7) and total points scored (42). Dating back to last season, he’s riding a stretch of five straight games with at least 144 rushing yards, two rushing TDs and a run of 74-plus yards. Time for linebacker Owen Long & Co. to step up.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: UTSA 27, CSU 23
The near-defeat of Northern Colorado was a harbinger. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi underperforms again, throwing a pair of interceptions, and the Roadrunners score twice late to steal a late-night victory in Fort Collins. The Canvas Stadium crowd isn’t shocked at the outcome, considering the struggles of two weeks ago. And with the defeat, Jay Norvell’s seat is officially red-hot.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: UTSA 30, CSU 27
Talk about a perfectly-timed bye. Did dodging a historic upset loss vs. UNC finally scare the Rams straight? Coach Jay Norvell doubled down this week on erratic QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. BFN needs to return that trust in kind during a pivotal two-week home stretch. Ex-CU Buff Owen McCown outduels BFN in FoCo — barely — to further annoy CSU faithful and set up a massive Rams showdown with Washington State on Sept. 27.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: UTSA 34, CSU 31
The CSU Rams defense had all sorts of issues trying to slow down Washington running back Jonah Coleman in Week 1. Robert Henry Jr. might be Coleman Lite. This is the sort of game that will require CSU’s offense to trade haymakers. If it’s the group that went up and down the field vs. Washington in Week 1, the Rams have a chance. If it’s the mistake-prone outfit that barely survived UNC, the sky is falling in FoCo.
