How to assess the September jobs report in the absence of BLS data
Oct. 02, 2025 2:34 PM ETBy: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor
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If the Bureau of Labor Statistics were issuing its September Employment Situation report on Friday, economists were expecting a headline payrolls number rebounding some from August, but significantly weaker than a year ago. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%.
Quick Insights
The labor market is stagnating, with declining job growth and lower hiring rates compared to prior years, despite unemployment remaining relatively low.
Health care remains a main engine of jobs creation, while construction is faltering, and most other sectors have seen year-over-year declines in job postings.
Metrics like job churn (layoff and quit rates), rising unemployment duration, more unemployed persons per opening, and sluggish holiday hiring suggest labor market weakness beneath stable headline unemployment.
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