Copyright Salt Lake Tribune
The race to the Big 12 Championship just got a little more complicated for both BYU and Utah The Utes, ranked at No. 13 in last week’s first College Football Playoff Rankings, still have a chance at making it to the Big 12 championship game and potentially an at-large CFP bid if they win out this month. But if you ask Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham, he’s not focused on that right now. “We’re really focused on Baylor right now,” Whittingham said this week. “We just know that we don’t have any margin for error. We understand that. I think it was a nice show of respect for our program from the committee to rank us where we were ranked. “But we have to take things one week at a time, and that’s exactly what we’re doing this week.” According to ESPN’s Power Index, the Utes still have a 6.9% chance to win the conference and a 23.9% chance to get an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff. The Utes would need some help from their conference rivals and other Power Four programs to jump in the standings, however. So what about BYU? Following the Cougars’ loss to Texas Tech this weekend, they still have a relatively straightforward path both to the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas, and the playoffs. Sitting in second in the Big 12 with a 5-1 conference record, BYU could be looking at a rematch with the Red Raiders in three weeks, “We’re going to meet [Texas Tech] again, I promise you that, and we’re going to beat them,” BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts said. Here’s a look at both BYU and Utah’s paths to the College Football Playoff and the Big 12 Championship: Big 12 Championship paths For BYU, its path to its first-ever Big 12 championship bid is simple: Win out, and the Cougars are in. BYU does have a tough stretch of remaining opponents, however. It will first face TCU, then travel to Cincinnati, and then end the regular season with a bout against UCF. According to ESPN’s Power Index, the analytics are not in the Cougars’ favor. ESPN predicts that BYU has a 12.2% chance to win all three of its remaining contests. Utah, meanwhile, has a more difficult — and very convoluted — journey to make it to the title game. With its two losses coming to Texas Tech and BYU, the Utes will need some help to return to a conference championship game for the first time since 2022. The easiest and most likely path for the Utes is to win its final three remaining games, for BYU to finish 7-2 (with a loss to the Bearcats) and for Cincinnati to finish 7-2 in the conference, thereby setting up a three-way tie for second place (assuming Texas Tech also wins out). In that scenario, per the Big 12 tiebreaker rules, the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie. So Utah could still get a rematch with Texas Tech if the tiebreaker dominoes fall in their favor. That is the most likely scenario for the Utes to find a way to Arlington, with other paths still open potentially. Journey to the College Football Playoff For BYU, its path to the CFP — just like the path to the Big 12 Championship game — is very simple. If BYU wins out, including a victory in Arlington, the Cougars would have a guaranteed bid to make it into the 12-team playoff. It could get dicey, though, if BYU lost to Texas Tech again in the Big 12 Championship. That could put the Cougars’ hopes of making the 12-team field in jeopardy For the Utes and Whittingham, the journey to a bid in the playoffs is difficult. The Utes would need some help from multiple teams currently ranked ahead of them. First, Utah would have to win out for it to have any chance to be possible. Notre Dame, which has two losses and isn’t a part of a conference, would likely have to lose a third game for the Utes to jump the Irish. Texas and Oklahoma — ranked at Nos. 11 and 12, respectively, in the latest rankings — would also likely have to take a third loss. The Sooners are set for a tough road matchup against Alabama this coming Saturday. The Longhorns, on the other hand, are set to face off against Georgia this weekend. Another scenario that could see the Utes get in is if BYU suffered a second loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. There is a world where the CFP committee takes the Utes over BYU in that scenario. Remember, the committee took a one-loss Alabama over an undefeated, ACC champion in Florida State in 2023. Right now, anything is possible. And the season is setting up for a wild finish.
