More than five years have passed since movie theaters around the world closed their doors during the global COVID-19 lockdown, and the exhibition industry has yet to recover. Many analysts were pinning their hopes on this summer to fuel a much-needed box-office rebound – the “survive ’til ’25” mantra kept the industry going all last year.
But that rebound didn’t happen. In fact, when adjusted for inflation, this was the worst box office summer since 1981.
The domestic box office high watermark is still 2018, where $11.8 billion was earned from a record 993 films released in theaters, according to Box Office Mojo. 2019 saw a 4.4% dip to $11.3 billion, but after the COVID lockdown in 2020, the box office numbers have been nowhere close since.
2018 also saw a record in admissions with 1.311 billion tickets sold, dipping to 1.225 billion in 2019 and never breaking 10 figures since, despite some impressive box office performers. Naturally, there were sizable upticks in 2021 (112.1%), 2022 (64.4%) and 2023 (20.9%) that coincided with an increase in theatrical output each year.
However, that progress was upended in 2024, which saw a 3.8% drop in grosses despite 85 more movies being released than in 2023. While some may see that tiny drop as a stumbling block, others, like The Cinelytic Group CEO Tobias Queisser, think it’s the dreaded “new normal,” as he explained in an exclusive interview with ScreenRant.
The Cinelytic Group’s Box Office Forecasting, Explained
Among other tools, The Cinelytic Group uses an AI-driven platform which analyzes 19 different metrics to provide an accurate projection of box office grosses. The results are nothing short of astonishing. The company projected 2025 first-quarter total grosses of $1,400,425,462. The actual figure was $1,423,441,460, an accuracy rate of 98%.
Their 2025 Q2 projection ($2,598,191,664) was 97% accurate from the actual figure ($2,673,854,431). What’s even more incredible than the pinpoint accuracy is the fact that the full year’s projections were released in November 2024, before the 2025 theatrical year even started. Queisser, a former independent film producer, explained why he started his company:
“When I looked at the data, only 3% of the films break even, or over 80% of independently produced films never see a screen, it became apparent there’s a bit of a mismatch between what’s being made and what the market finds distribution for.”
Queisser added that he started Cinelytic eight years ago, when he realized “the problem is that the early stages, where sort of the idea and the script is being translated into a financeable product, this is where there was not enough data and information available in order to form and create a coherent business case.”
His team – which includes “producers, studio execs and a rocket scientist and his team that worked for NASA for 15 years” – has developed software filmmakers can use to determine how valuable their projects may be on various different levels.
“We focus on 19 factors,” Queisser explained, “such as the budget, potential rating, based on any IP, is it a prequel/sequel? Is it a franchise? We have 19 attributes. You put in these 19 attributes, and then it will forecast the most probable outcome.”
That same tool allows Cinelytic to forecast a year’s worth of box office in the previous fall – and they have concluded there will likely be no COVID rebound.
The Post-Pandemic Box Office Isn’t Getting Back To 2019 Anytime Soon
While Queisser and Cinelytic are projecting a 3% year-over-year growth for the upcoming fourth quarter box office, he doesn’t see the theatrical industry fully rebounding to 2018 or 2019 heights anytime soon, perhaps ever.
“This is just my opinion. We see a lot of data, right, that, since COVID… it’s such a terrible word, but, the new normal,” he admitted. “The world has changed, but there is a different capacity. What we see from a macro level is that the consumer just has so many other things to spend their time on.”
Queisser added that it would be “extremely tough to take the $10 billion hurdle” in the current marketplace, adding, “we’re not gonna get back” to the 2018 or 2019 levels of nearly $12 billion at the domestic box office. Queisser admitted that a domestic range between $9-10 billion would be “a good scenario” for the box office.
“People are very selective with what they go to the theaters for,” he said, choosing what they want to see in theaters or on streaming. Queisser joked about how that genie won’t ever be going back in the bottle: “You cannot take the home video away from them again and say, ‘We’re gonna go back to 120 days (theatrical window). They will revolt.”
“From a macro perspective, the overall market does not allow for revenues to go above $10 billion right now. There’s just so much competition. There’s just not enough there right now.”
That doesn’t mean the box office will never return to those pre-pandemic halcyon days. But, according to the data, any recovery would take a lot longer than the industry was hoping for.
What Will Help Save The Box Office And The Theatrical Experience?
No, not Timothée Chalamet – though Queisser and his models are showing that original films like his upcoming A24 film Marty Supreme could certainly help. He said that if the Chalamet project does make over $100 million at the domestic box office, it may not move the needle on the overall year, but it would be quite telling.
“What our system predicted is there is definitely a need for original content because the consumers are getting tired of franchises. But the question is, in order to move the needle for the overall year, you need a lot of these titles to do well,” he said.
There is some optimism to be had when it comes to the box office. The Cinelytic Group is projecting a 3% growth in Q4 of 2025, over the same quarter last year. While this year may crack the $9 billion mark domestically, it’s clear the gulf between $9 billion and $10 billion marks is wider than previously believed.
Still, there are factors that are trending in the right direction, like Warner Bros.’ unprecedented box office streak of seven straight films debuting with more than $40 million domestic, many of which were original films like Sinners, F1 and Weapons. There are also signs that Hollywood is heeding Queisser’s analysis that audiences want more original films.
Last month alone saw a whopping eight sales of spec screenplays (original scripts written without being paid ahead of time) were sold, the highest amount of scripts sold in one month since March 2017, according to No Film School. There are 19 spec script sales for 2025 to date, already up significantly from 11 in all of 2023, and from the 14 spec sales through August 2024.