Copyright The Philadelphia Inquirer
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Only a little more than three weeks have passed since Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft fired James Franklin and named Terry Smith as interim football coach. For the first time since 2014, Penn State is in the market for a new head coach. Kraft said he would lead a national search to find someone who “embodies everything Penn State stands for,” a coach who “makes Penn State a destination.” » READ MORE: Penn State coaching search: Sizing up more candidates for the job, from Mike Elko to Bob Chesney When will the Nittany Lions hire that coach? Based on last season’s coaching carousel within the Football Bowl Subdivision from teams both in and out of the Power 4 conferences, there’s data to suggest that a hire could be made relatively soon. Recent hiring trends In 2024, all 11 FBS teams that made midseason head coaching changes hired a new head coach by Dec. 9 of that year. Three teams fired their head coaches in October 2024 — East Carolina, Rice, and Southern Mississippi — just like Penn State did with Franklin this season. ECU and Rice hired their coaches in late November. Southern Miss hired head coach Charles Huff on Dec. 8. With Penn State’s season finale scheduled for Nov. 29 at Rutgers, a hire within a week of that date would align with recent trends. Another factor in the hiring process is Franklin’s $49 million buyout, which Kraft said the school’s athletic department will pay. If Franklin accepts another head coaching gig, which he has to make a “good faith effort to obtain,” according to documents related to Franklin’s 2021 contract extension that were obtained by Front Office Sports, Penn State is obligated to pay the difference between the annual salary it owes him and his new yearly compensation. » READ MORE: Interim coach Terry Smith is still waiting for Penn State to unlock the deep passing game A similar situation unfolded in November 2023 when Texas A&M fired Jimbo Fisher despite a $76 million buyout. The Aggies conducted a national coaching search and hired Mike Elko on Nov. 27, two days after their season finale. If the Nittany Lions follow a similar trend, their new coach could take over as early as Dec. 1. Transfer portal’s effect Last year, the transfer portal’s “winter window,” which marks a period when NCAA players can enter the portal and be recruited by other teams, opened on Dec. 9 and was extended to Dec. 28. With the growing importance of transfers in college football, all 11 teams that experienced midseason coaching changes last year hired new head coaches before the window opened. This season, the lone offseason portal window starts on Jan. 2 and stretches to Jan. 16. While recent trends indicate that Penn State could hire its next head coach no later than the first week of December, the three additional weeks between the regular-season finale and the start of the offseason portal window provide the school with more time to conduct its search. Kraft’s hiring history During Kraft’s five-year tenure as Temple’s athletic director, he hired two head football coaches: Geoff Collins and Rod Carey. After Matt Rhule departed for Baylor on Dec. 6, 2016, Kraft was tasked with finding a replacement. Seven days later, he hired Collins, who had served as Florida’s defensive coordinator that season, as the Owls’ head coach. When Georgia Tech hired Collins on Dec. 7, 2018, Kraft conducted a longer coaching search before hiring Carey on Jan. 11, 2019. It’s worth noting that, in both instances, the transfer portal was not as significant as it is today. Though both Collins and Carey were outside hires, Kraft said Smith will “absolutely” be considered for the full-time role. If that is the case, Smith’s promotion could come sooner than an outside hire.
