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Here are the 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead

Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

With the long-awaited Federal Reserve rate cut in hand, Wall Street put together a winning week filled with record closes. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 joined the all-time high party for the first time in four years. Where does the market go from here? In a few weeks, we’ll embark on third-quarter earnings season, and not long after that, the Fed’s October policy meeting will arrive. It may seem early to mention both of them. But, then again, the market is a forward-looking machine with a motor that never stalls out. The calendar is a little light in the more immediate term, especially in the week ahead. The big economic event in the coming days is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and while there are still inflation risks to monitor, the central bank has told the market its biggest concern right now is the health of the U.S. labor market. Accordingly, we’ll keep an eye on the weekly batch of initial jobless claims, along with some housing market data. On the earnings front, the only portfolio name set to report is Costco. It’s pretty quiet beyond our Club stock universe as well, save for memory chipmaker Micron and what it will say about AI demand. Now, here’s a closer look at what to watch for in the week ahead. 1. Inflation updates Before the opening bell on Friday, we’ll get the August personal income and spending report. Contained within that is the all-important personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. While the consumer price index (CPI) captures more headlines, the Fed favors the PCE as part of its 2% inflation target. We’ve been well above that target for some time now, but that didn’t stop the central bank from cutting its overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday. At his Jackson Hole speech in August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that he saw more downside risk on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate than on the inflation front. He reiterated that view on Wednesday afternoon. Still, even with the stated focus on the labor market, it is important that we get a PCE print on Friday that is in line with expectations. If it comes in too hot, the market may get spooked and decide the Fed was wrong to shift its focus, even slightly, from the tariff-driven inflation risks. While the Fed is in an incredibly tough spot, the market won’t show mercy. That means a hotter-than-expected inflation would likely prompt a rise in bond yields and, in turn, put pressure on equities, especially considering the major averages are trading around all-time highs. As of Friday, the economists are looking for a 3% year-over-year rise in the core PCE index, which removes volatile food and energy prices. 2. More economic data Other economic updates to keep an eye on include both the August new and existing home sales reports, due out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The final read on second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is also out Thursday morning. Of those, we would put a greater emphasis on the housing data. While GDP is generally an important economic indicator, Thursday’s report is the third and final second-quarter update, meaning a lot of the thunder has already been stolen. The new and existing home sales reports are fresher and will speak to shelter costs, which are the single largest component of inflation. It will be particularly interesting to see how the bond market reacts to the housing updates following the Fed’s decision to cut rates. Of course, we want to see longer-term bond yields, which more heavily impact mortgage rates, move lower. We did see mortgage rates move lower for much of the summer and really take a leg lower in September. However, they’ve started to creep up once again in recent days. The bottom line here is that how the bond market reacts to the housing data will be more meaningful than the August report itself because the bond market holds the key to what we will see from housing in the future. Finally, initial jobless claims will be out Thursday morning, and the market will be looking for additional confirmation that the spike two weeks ago more of an anomaly than a canary in the coal mine. Last week, they came back down in an encouraging, lighter-than-expected way. 3. Costco earnings We’ve got one straggler left in the summer earnings season: Costco . The retail giant will release its quarterly results after the closing bell on Thursday. Because Costco is one of the few companies that reports monthly sales figures, the revenue line isn’t what moves the stock on earnings. It’s basically everything else that does, especially margin performance and management’s commentary about consumer spending trends. Membership statistics, as well as comments on foot traffic and growth initiatives like advertising and e-commerce, matter, too. We think Costco stands to gain share in the market given the pressure consumers are feeling due to years of elevated inflation. Costco’s membership model not only allows the company to operate on thin profit margins, but by selling in bulk, management is also able to pass savings along to the consumer. That is becoming an increasingly enticing proposition for the value-oriented consumer. As of Friday, the Street is looking for earnings of $5.81 on revenue of $86.09 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Week ahead Monday, Sept. 22 No major events Tuesday, Sept. 23 Before the bell: AutoZone (AZO) After the bell: Micron (MU), AAR Corp. (AIR), MillerKnoll (MLKN), Worthington Industries (WOR) Wednesday, Sept. 24 New home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Cintas (CTAS), THOR Industries (THO), After the bell: KB Home (KBH), HB Fuller (FUL), Stitch Fix (SFIX), Steelcase (SCS), Worthington Steel (WS) Thursday, Sept. 25 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index at 8:30 a.m. ET Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Existing home sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Accenture (ACN), CarMax (KMX), Jabil (JBL), TD SYNNEX (SNX), BlackBerry (BB), After the bell: Costco (COST) , Concentrix (CNCX) Friday, Sept. 26 University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey (final reading) at 10 a.m. ET (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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