Copyright The Daily Beast
Everyone is trying to figure out what prompted the Democrats to surrender and end the government shutdown, giving Trump a big win just days after their biggest victory in years. They had the Republicans on the run—why would they fold? It wasn’t the flight delays or the SNAP fight. It was about a looming threat to the filibuster, a Senate rule that requires a super majority of sixty votes to pass most legislation. For senators of both parties, but particularly those in opposition to the MAGA agenda, Trump’s call to “nuke” it is an ever present sword of Damocles hanging over their heads in moments of peril. “The Democratic establishment (is) more afraid of letting the Republicans nuke the filibuster than they are of reinforcing the Democratic brand as the most pathetic, timid cowards in the world,” said Jonah Blank, a former Democratic Senate staffer, mincing no words over what he framed as an embarrassing capitulation. But without it, the minority party would have no power to stop anything Trump and the GOP wanted to do. And there are easily fifty (or more) Republicans in the Senate who would do just about anything Trump wants—they’ve rolled over for him repeatedly already. So why didn’t Trump quite get his wish here? GOP leader John Thune, like Mitch McConnell before him, is an institutionalist and loath to be the one who torpedoes a cherished artifact of bipartisanship. To be clear, the filibuster has an ignominious past too—it was a tool wielded shamefully to stop civil rights legislation. Under McConnell, it was used to stop basically whatever President Obama tried to do, prompting the Democrats to weaken it so they could at least get executive appointments confirmed. (Republicans later meddled similarly to speed the passage of lower court judges—and in Trump’s first term, Supreme Court justices.) But even weakened or bruised in its current state, the filibuster is better than nothing as a fail safe. “The pathway out of this shutdown was clear from day one,” Blank explained. “Senate Democrats care about their precious filibuster more than anything else in the world. It’s the only thing that makes them feel relevant.” And so, the Democrats’ exit strategy, if the GOP didn’t extend Obamacare subsidies, was to end the shutdown before Thune ended the filibuster. They caved first. But they had to. During the 12 years Blank worked in the Senate, he saw the machinations of power up close—and how that power see-saws. This is just one battle with many to go; Democrats may be fooling themselves that they can stop all of the worst that’s ahead, but they will try, and the filibuster is their only tool aside from marshaling public opinion, which they successfully did with the shutdown. Of course, Thune has been in the Senate representing South Dakota since 2005, and he too has the wild swings of power.. He imagines—and surely fears— a world sans filibuster where Democrats back in power would go wild. Can’t have that. “This would have been in Dems’ own (long term) interest,” Blank continued of the filibuster’s demise, “which is precisely why Thune had resisted Trump’s calls to do it. But he wouldn’t have held out very long.” Eight Democrats took the hit for ending the shutdown, but many more wanted it. “Shame on Schumer and every other Democratic senator who wanted this outcome but didn’t want to put their name on it,” said Blank. He suspects the Senate minority leader, despite his own vote against the deal, was likely involved in its orchestration with his top deputy, retiring Senator Dick Durbin, who voted with the Republicans. Of course, if you think the filibuster is an artifact of a past that has outlived its usefulness, you will rue this day Democrats gave up the fight that was so long in coming and so welcomed by the party’s base. Those who believe in the filibuster—and many of the old guard in both parties do—can come away from this battle, meanwhile, feeling there is some justification in how it ended. I believe it is a worthy rule, but the day will come when partisan self-interest takes precedence. All politics is local, and the Democrats preserved the modicum of power—or at least restraint. They don’t have a lot of cards here. Elections have consequences. The Republicans were never going to yield on gutting Obamacare, but as premiums spiral and rural hospitals close, their voters know it’s their party who’s screwing them over.
