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But given the absurd gap in NHL scoring rates when each played, we get this shocking neutral comparison: Pastrnak: 43 goals, 48 assists, 91 points per 82 games Neely: 39 goals, 28 assists, 67 points per 82 games Jonathan Toews (+31): It’s been great to see Toews, 37, back on the ice this season. His 2017 inclusion in the nostalgia-heavy 100 Greatest Players centennial list in his late-20s spoke volumes about the level of reverence around his game. Toews was and is a legit first-ballot Hall of Famer — he’s overrated from intangibles yet underrated by his stat line. John Tavares (+28): I covered everything about Tavares’ sneaky-great Hall of Fame credentials in January. He’s since completed last season’s 38-goal campaign, scored his 500th career goal, and secured a four-year extension that should bring his totals to levels even his biggest critics can’t ignore. Anze Kopitar (+27): What a career for Kopitar, the first Slovenian to grace the NHL. He’s been a player every coach has drooled over for the last two decades. Kopitar has finished top 10 in Selke voting an unfathomable dozen times, paired nicely with nearly 1,300 career points. He’s not higher on this list from averaging ‘only’ 25 goals per 82 games and going 11 years without a playoff series win. Artemi Panarin (+27): This is probably too high for Panarin for most people’s tastes — his reputation hasn’t caught up to his performance. But the numbers don’t lie. Through last season, Panarin was a neutral era 97-point player — ninth all-time among players with 750 games. He’s also a four-time year-end all-star at left wing. By debuting in the NHL in his age-24 season, Panarin arrived with 183 KHL points. ⚠️ Borderline/Above Mikko Rantanen (+11): If all goes well, Rantanen should reach 800 points in his 20s. That’ll be more than Malkin, Kopitar, or Kucherov banked at the same age. Throw in a pair of 100-point seasons and a phenomenal postseason record (Cup ring, 123 points in 99 games) and Rantanen may be able to coast to the Hall of Fame with good health. Corey Perry (+9): Despite the Hart/Rocket season, Perry did not have a Hall of Fame peak. He earned MVP votes just one other time — a 13th-place finish. He topped 76 points only twice. It’s very unlikely he reaches 500 goals or 1,000 points. He’s known for a career of dirty, dangerous plays. Yet, it felt like the tide turned last year on Perry’s case. Playing the most playoff games by a forward in NHL history and losing five Cup Finals in six years characterized ‘The Worm’ as a relentless hockey lifer. PPS says he’s slightly above the standard but appropriately a borderline case. Aleksander Barkov (+5): Even if he doesn’t return to elite, Selke-level form after his devastating preseason ACL/MCL surgery, Barkov is going to the Hall of Fame. A repeat Cup-winning captain with three Selkes before his 30th birthday scoring near a point-per-game for 12 years? Smells like an induction speech. ⛔ Borderline/Below Jamie Benn (-0.2): I had Benn at #3 for 2025-26 being most critical to his Hall future. He remains out after surgery for a collapsed lung, and the low-scoring era of his prime really suppresses his career numbers. PPS says the 2014-15 Art Ross winner is right at the Hall’s standard. Few agree, however. Barring a triumphant return and late-career signature moment or two, Benn’s path to immortality feels daunting. Claude Giroux (-4): Over a full decade (2010-2020), Giroux led the NHL in assists — an incredible achievement in a league with Crosby and Kane. But public polling says only 10% of fans feels he’s a Hall of Famer. Like Benn’s, Giroux’s career stat line is greatly hurt by the low-scoring era of his peak years. Giroux will likely retire very close to (but just shy of) the PPS standard. Matthew Tkachuk (-5): PPS loves Tkachuk. Through his age-27 season, it shows him on the cusp of the Hall’s statistical standard. Two Stanley Cups, two 40-goal/100-point seasons and 94 postseason caps will do that. Some fear exists that Tkachuk’s bat-out-of-hell playing style will limit his career totals, having missed significant chunks of the prior and current seasons. Tyler Seguin (-5): Yet another overlooked star that peaked in the mid-2010s. Mid-career injury trouble has kept Seguin from a realistic Hall of Fame future. He’s reached 1,000 games but it’s come at a cost. He’s an old 34. Seguin’s place in the Borderline/Below tier may surprise, but it shouldn’t: over a six-season run, he scored at a neutral era 39-goal, 87-point pace. Seguin won a Cup at 19 and has played 151 playoff games. Brayden Point (-6): Absent any notable hardware consideration, Point is going to have to play a long time to earn serious consideration. But PPS sees a player who just sniped 51, 46, and 42 goals in a three-year window — only Pastrnak, Draisaitl, and Matthews scored more. Someone who scored at a 38-goal pace for nine years. Someone who led the NHL in playoff goals in back-to-back Cup victories. A stunning statistical match at the same age? Mats Sundin, but with playoff success. Mitch Marner (-8): Marner is well on his way to significant career point totals and a date with the Hall of Fame. He’s scored at no worse than a 93-point pace the last seven seasons and at least a 100-point pace each of the last five. That’s all-world production and consistency. Marner’s got playoff demons to slay but #1) the Hall is filled with underwhelming postseason résumés; and #2) he’s got plenty of time. Hall of Very Good Sebastian Aho (-16): 653 points and another 85 in the playoffs through his age-27 season. Averaging a pedestrian 56 points the next 10 seasons gets him to 1,213 — more than anyone outside the Hall. Vladimir Tarasenko (-16): He’s on his last legs but will end up with a sneaky ‘Hall of Very Good’ career, featuring six 30-goal seasons and two Stanley Cups. Jake Guentzel (-18): Debuting at 22 hurts Guentzel’s numbers for his age. If he can play at a high level for a long time, there’s an outside chance. Think Joe Pavelski’s unique career arc if you’re feeling hopeful. Mark Scheifele (-19): Scheifele’s last nine seasons: an impressive 659 points in 652 games. Still thriving at 32, there’s a world where he tops 1,100 points, wins Olympic gold and a Stanley Cup. But it’s a long shot. Mark Stone (-20): With just 712 games at 33, Stone is destined to fall short. But his placement here shows how underappreciated he’s been. A career 75-point pace player with a Cup and two Selke finalist nods. Kirill Kaprizov (-21): Debuting at 23 crushes major career milestone dreams. But Kaprizov’s career pace to date: 47 goals, 52 assists, 99 points! Wow. Needs some individual honors and signature seasons ASAP. Jack Eichel (-24): Eichel went four years between healthy, dominant seasons. Now 29 and off to a monster start, he’s going to have to stay on the ice and band together some big years into his 30s. He’s capable. Defensemen have the most difficult time getting into the Hall of Fame, the position receiving an unfavorable share of the six-player distribution on the ice. Unlike forwards, potential defenseman candidates typically must both reach the top of their position and have long, exceptional careers to be elected. Post-expansion defensemen elected: 27Selection Committee accuracy per PPS system: 23/27 (85%)Active defensemen above standard: 7
