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Guerrero’s chat: Which players fit where on the Cardinals’ 2026 roster?

By Daniel Guerrero

Copyright stltoday

Guerrero's chat: Which players fit where on the Cardinals' 2026 roster?

Hello everyone. Happy Monday. Welcome to today’s Cardinals chat at STL Today dot come. Post-Dispatch baseball writer Daniel Guerrero here. I’ll be on today’s chat while my P-D teammate Derrick Goold is in San Francisco for the start of the Cardinals’ final road trip of the season. Sunday marked the end of the Cardinals’ home schedule for 2025. Lots to get into as we near the start of the offseason. What do you all want to talk about?

(I’ll have a transcript of the chat below the text box that I’ll update as the chat goes on.)

Ryan: Herrera back to catching huh? That’ll fix their problems. Rostering 5 catchers is the dumbest thing ever.

Guerrero: Yes, Ivan Herrera will go through the upcoming offseason looking to improve on his catching as he will remain at his natural position in 2026. I don’t think the idea is that this is the fix to the Cardinals’ problems, but it does provide an idea of where Herrera may stick on the field. Having him stick to designated hitter this year has kept him and his .824 OPS in the lineup, though it has come with the inability to use the DH spot to give other players in the lineup DH days. Also, I don’t see five catchers on this current roster unless you are including Willson Contreras? If that is the case, I’d argue he shouldn’t be included as a catcher. His primary position is first base following his position switch, which has gone well. (He’s shown above average range with plus-six Outs Above Average.)

Brian: Hi Daniel, what do you see as the importance of Herrera’s attempt to reestablish himself as a catcher for this franchise, both on the major league roster and also its surplus of rising catching prospects?

Guerrero: Manager Oli Marmol touched on the two focuses for reestablishing himself behind the plate. Herrera will need to improve his arm strength and with his game calling. Herrera is expected to undergo surgery on his right elbow this winter. He said Sunday he’s dealt with an elbow issue “for the last three years” that hurts him when he throws 100%. He said he tried to play through the injury to avoid surgery, but he will get the operation this winter. Herreras has showcased his offensive ceiling this year despite having some start and stop because of two left leg injuries (bone bruise in his left knee and a left hamstring strain), so the throwing and game-calling aspects to his defense will be the big storylines to watch as the 25-year-old Herrera looks to handle the primary catching duties. But as you mention, the catching spot is a deep position in the majors and minors. Pedro Pages has handled big-league catching duties and established a strong rapport with the pitching staff, so he remains a part of the equation moving forward. Yohel Pozo took on innings at the position and the Cardinals have gotten a look at him. Jimmy Crooks, the top catching prospect in the system entering 2025, is in the majors and garnered some praise from Marmol on his preparation in working with the pitching staff and with how “quiet” he is behind the plate. Leonardo Bernal was Springfield’s primary catcher this season and will need to be added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Rainiel Rodriguez reached Class High-A for a brief stay before Peoria’s season wrapped up, but he is still just 18 years old and still will require ample time in the minors to develop.

chico: The 2 young players,Church and Crooks didn’t show much,or is that too short a window to decide?

Guerrero: I think it’s fair to say this has been too short of a window. The two have not found much production in their arrival to the majors, but that isn’t too alarming. Lots of young players struggle when they first get to the big leagues as the game speeds up on them. We saw that with Masyn Winn at the end of 2023, and then saw how it aided him in 2024. That’s not to say Nathan Church are Jimmy Crooks are guaranteed to turn scuffles this year into strong starts next year, but it at least gives the two youngsters an idea of what the majors is like and what they can improve on over the winter.

chico: Can you explain what W.H.I.P. is?

Guerrero: Walks and hits per inning pitched.

Brian: Are either Quinn Matthews or Liam Doyle viewed as possibilities for the 2026 rotation at some point? While Doyle was just drafted, he has been described as a potential fast-riser — but is the Cards timeline for him?

Guerrero: Of the two, I think Quinn Mathews would be the more likely candidate considering he has totaled over 240 innings in the minors and made 26 starts in Class AAA. A shoulder injury limited Mathews to 99 innings this year, but he experienced positive health to finish the minor league season. I expect he will get a look during big-league spring training and could continue pushing his way to the majors there. As for Liam Doyle, he was moved up to Double-A ahead of the Texas League playoffs, and he’s taken the ball once since the promotion with one guaranteed game remaining on Tuesday for Springfield. Perhaps we get a clearer idea of the Cardinals’ timeline for Doyle this winter. He still needs innings in pro ball to develop as a starter in the minors, so 2026 could be a bit early.

South City Steve: Do you think Contreras rethinks entertaining a trade this winter given the clear direction of this team over what would be the last 2 years of his contract?

Guerrero: I don’t have a strong sense on this at the moment. The last time Contreras spoke about this was before this year’s trade deadline. He expressed a desire to stay and see things through in St. Louis as he was compelled to be a part of this retooling process.

diamond2113: it would seem to me that Arenado, and the Cards are going out on a limb in thinking this is the end. unless he adds teams to his no trade list, im not sure he is tradable

Guerrero: Arenado was asked yesterday about being more flexible for a trade to work out. Arenado was honest in his response and was clear that he anticipates not being back with the Cardinals next year. He said flexibility was something he’d discuss with his agent and his family. He acknowledged that he couldn’t “go anywhere,” and understands there have to be teams that “want” him. He believes he can help teams win. He reiterated the importance of making a decision that is right for his family.

Hot to trot: How are players selected for the Arizona Fall League as far as ability and potential ho?

Guerrero: A player can be selected for different reasons. We can even point to some recent fall league invites from the Cardinals system as an example. For instance, Thomas Saggese was sent last year to continue working on his plate discipline. Cooper Hjerpe’s invite to the fall league in 2023 offered a chance for him to make up for innings after he was limited by injury during the regular season. Jordan Walker’s invite in 2022 not only allowed him to use the “finishing school” for prospects to build upon a strong season, but gave him a chance for game reps in the outfield after making the positional switch from third base following that season’s trade deadline. Matt Svanson was a Rule 5 Draft-eligible player heading into last offseason and was invited to the fall league. He built off his strong Double-A season and secured his 40-man roster spot.

Chris: With the Cardinals so publicly saying good bye to Arenado, is the team signaling they will release him if they cannot find a trade partner for him?

Guerrero: No, I don’t see releasing Arenado as something that would happen.

Cairo Spring Training: For any team to reach the postseason, you must have some pitching- any thoughts on Springfield’s starters and how they’re viewed both internally and externally? Mautz looks good on video , Wei-Lin looks long and lean and prototypical. Hansen, etc. Also- the system sees overloaded (a good thing in LH starting- any thoughts on where these guys end up, any true top of the rotation starters in the system besides Doyle and possibly Mathews?

Guerrero: The starting staff in Springfield played a major role in the success of the Cardinals’ Class AA affiliate. They led the Texas League in ERA (3.42), strikeouts (683), and K/9 (9.49). That staff was anchored by lefty Ixan Henderson (2.59 ERA over 132 innings) and benefited from breakouts like Brycen Mautz and Pete Hansen, both of whom are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter. The lefties project as arms who can fill out the back end of a rotation. The one righty you mentioned seems like the highest ceiling arm. Chen-Wei Lin, a 6-foot-7 23-year-old with a fastball that touches 101 mph, is still pretty raw but has shown the swing-and-miss results organizations chase. Lin’s time in Class AA has been limited, but he will get a chance to pitch in the fall league to continue adding innings after being limited by injury this year.

dth: “From 1982 through 2024, the Cardinals had only finished outside of the top 10 once, in 1995, when fans were upset over the work stoppage.” To me, that sentence from Ethan’s article about attendance numbers stands out the most. There were some bad teams in those years, but the fans still showed up until now. What does that say about the current state of the team?

Guerrero: I think the numbers speak to how fans feel at the moment. Obviously, fans have expressed frustrations with where the team is currently, and they have made it known with turnout at the ballpark.

Brian: I feel like I’m not understanding bat speed. I keep hearing that Walker has absolutely elite bat speed, but OTOH he stands so far off the plate that he can’t effectively cover the outside edge, making him easy pickings for capable MLB pitchers. Reportedly he sets up that way because he’s concerned about being beaten inside. I get that the speed of the bat at a particular point is not the same as how long it takes to get the bat to that point, but I’d think there’d been a pretty decent relationship. Can you help me understand what seems like something of a contradiction?

Guerrero: Bat speed is important as it helps produce batted balls with high exit velocities. And I know we can get caught up in exit velocity data, but quality of contact is important and an important underlying stat. Walker ranks third in the majors in average bat speed (78 mph). Here are the players ahead of him: Oneil Cruz (78.8) and All-Star Junior Caminero (78.5). (Yes, Cruz is sort of this advanced data darling and hasn’t really put it all together in the majors.) Here are some of the players Walker ranks ahead of: All-Star Kyle Schwarber (77.4), MVP Aaron Judge (76.9), All-Star Vladimir Guerrro Jr. (76.7), MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (76.5). Being among that company in bat speed doesn’t guarantee Walker will reach the heights of Judge and Acuna, but it gives you the indication that there is more to be unlocked with the 23-year-old right fielder. Right, swing and miss on pitches away, notably breaking and offspeed pitches, have plagued Walker. He’s whiffed on 42.9% of the breaking pitches and 49.4% of offspeed pitches he’s seen in the majors this year. He’s struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year and needs to make adjustments to have success in the majors in combating pitches away. We saw Walker make adjustments this year with his approach when he showed a more closed-off stance and got his body going towards the ball and results followed. Being able to consistently carry those results are part of the next layer in his development.

Ron: Did Arenado go on this last road trip?

Guerrero: Yes. He plans to play in each of the Cardinals remaining six games this season.

12fan: I think the Cardnials have learned a lot this year. Victro Scott II is a good centerfielder–or was until the last 3 weeks, but he has not hit. Nathan Church is also very fast and surely won’t hit less thatn Scott. Is that a gamble worth taking?

Guerrero: If this is a question about who we should see in center field after this season, count that being Victor Scott II. Scott has continued to get the priority in center even with Church up. Scott ranks as one of the best center fielders in baseball. As of this morning, he ranks third in Outs Above Average (plus-16) for qualified big-league center fielders behind only Rafaela Ceddanne (plus-22) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (plus-18). He is fourth in Defensive Runs Saved with plus-13 behind Rafaela (plus-21), Crow-Armstrong (plus-14), and Jacob Young (plus-11). Scott has shown he can be a threat on the bases with 33 successful tries on 36 attempts. Church had a breakout year in the minors, but Scott is viewed as the center fielder going forward. He will have to make adjustments at the plate in order to round out his game.

Jay Lewis: Daniel: Why do you say Herrera showed his ceiling this year. At 25, isn’t he capable of improvement at the plate? Thanks for the chat.

Guerrero: Ceiling was the wrong word I was looking for earlier. I meant to write potential. Of course, there is room for him to grow offensively. He expressed some of that yesterday when he talked about the growth in his mindset at the plate. When you look at the advanced numbers, that shows there is room to grow as well. Entering the final week of the season, Herrera owns a .455 slugging percentage, but has an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .499, per Statcast. Herrera’s xSLG ranks in the top 17% of qualified major league hitters. xSLG is calculated using exit velocity, launch angle, and, sometimes, sprint speed. It removes factors out of a player’s control, like defense.

mrr: From Roger Bresnahan to Miller Huggins to Rogers Hornsby to Frankie Fritsch to Ducky Medwick to Stan Musial to Lou Brock to Ted Simmons to Bruce Sutter to Ozzie Smith to Dennis Eckersley–the cardinals had Hall of Famers from 1909 to 1997. from 1997 to 2001, you had McGwire….then Pujols to 2011, Yadi after that. Nolan Arenado is probably a Hall of Famer….but who is the next one, if Nolan is traded this year?

Guerrero: Good question. It’s one I don’t think many would have the answer to without it being anything other than a bold prediction for someone’s career.

12fan: If only one of the two can stay, I’d prefer to have Arenado over Contreras. Maybe it is time to gut the club.

Guerrero: Based on Arenado’s comments yesterday, even he anticipates not being back next year.

Mike in KC: Exactly. No one knew in 2001 that Albert was a HoFer. Or Ozzie in 82.

Guerrero: I’d also argue that trying to name someone to continue the streak puts some unfair expectations on them.

BryanB from SLC: What’s going to happen to Saggese with the infield too full for 2025-26.

Guerrero: I think his versatility will have to be an asset. Assuming Arenado is dealt, top prospect JJ Wetherholt continues to push his way to the majors, and the rest of the infield makeup stays the says the same, being able to move around will be important for Saggese to keep his name in the lineup. He’s shown some of that this year even if it’s come with some growing pains.

Phil: I know baseball doesn’t have an equivalent to hockey’s plus/minus, but I’m fascinated (and concerned) that even though Contreras has been the Cards’ top player by bWAR since his arrival, the team is something like 35 games under .500 when he’s in the lineup and 25 games over .500 when he’s not. I don’t think there’s an easy answer to this surprising discrepancy, but it has me agreeing with 12fan that perhaps moving on from Contreras this winter would be the right move.

Guerrero: This is an interesting thing to point out. By multiple metrics, Contreras has brought value to the Cardinals despite what the record looks like when he is in the lineup. He’s posted a 127 OPS+ (100 is considered league average), accumulated 8.2 fWAR, and has seasons with a wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 127, 141, and 123. (A wRC+ of 100 is league average.) He has a Win Probability Added of 3.54 across his first three seasons as a Cardinal, which is higher than what he totaled (-0.72) over seven seasons with the Cubs, per FanGraphs. When we look at the wins-loses record for the Cardinals with and without Contreras, I think we have to account for how trade deadline sell-offs in 2023 and this year shape those results.

MS Bird Brain: Hey Daniel, thanks for the chat. What do you see happening to Bryan Torres this off-season? He’s a little under the radar because of the crowd at 2nd base, but it’s hard to imagine a 900+ OPS player at middle infield making it thru the rule 5 draft.

Guerrero: Considering we have one week left in the regular season and we didn’t see Torres reach the majors despite his strong season, I don’t get the sense the Cardinals will make a move to protect him ahead of the Rule 5 Draft.

Florida OBI- WAN: My question evolves around the starting rotation for next year. Who at this point would be considered penciled in and where might they go to fill out the rotation ? As I would think Mikolas would be gone and Pallante would be as well. Still wondering if LIBERATORE would stay as a SP or is he best to stay in the bullpen. He seemed to get tired as the year went on and his adjustments to hitters the 2nd-3rd time wasn’t what I would call the best for someone who is a SP. Great to see the crowd give Arenado the standing ovation as we all know he won’t be back next yr. Such a shame he couldn’t keep being a productive hitter the last few yrs. Kudos STL for being a class act as always as we know our baseball better than most in the US

Guerrero: Assuming Sonny Gray remains committed to staying in St. Louis, expect him back in the rotation for 2026. I would also expect Matthew Liberatore to remain a starter. He talked about hitting a wall at around the midpoint this season, which led to his velocity dipping. He and the Cardinals felt he overcame that, and the lefty said yesterday’s was an example of that as he touched 97.5 mph with his fastball and had his fastball average hover above 94 mph. Count on Michael McGreevy being a part of the rotation in 2026 as well. As for Pallante, he might be in a position where he must compete for a spot in the rotation.

pugger: Its’ clear this team is way behind in many areas… Yes, progress is happening, several players are exciting minor league players… But, they have a long way to go. What’s the timeline in ‘Your’ mind in terms of the Cardinals challenging for titles again– central division? 1st round playoffs? World series?

Guerrero: I think the timeline really depends on what the ownership and the front office do. We were told last year by John Mozeliak that the Cardinals were hitting the “reset” button. We saw how those efforts stalled because of the inability to trade Arenado and the commitment from Gray and Contreras to remain Cardinals. How the Cardinals approach this first winter in the Chaim Bloom era and how well they execute that plan alters that timeline to contention.

BryanB from SLC: Does you think the cards are looking at JJ Wetherholt to develop into 3rd base position?

Guerrero: Wetherholt got some playing time at third base in the final two months of the Class AAA season, but remained primarily at shortstop. He also got time at second there. The Cardinal kept him to the middle infield as a way to let him develop his range going to his left and right. I also think we need to factor in who is already at the majors for the Cardinals. Masyn Winn is in contention to win a Gold Glove at shortstop. Brendan Donovan, a utility Gold Glover, was an All-Star at second base. Wetherholt is capable of playing third and projects to land there, but I think we’ll get a clear sense of where he might stick when we see him next spring.

pugger: I’ll ask my question another way. Do the Cardinals have enough minor league talent/prospects to help the MLB team turn the corner and be a contender in the next 2-4 years? Meaning, Doyle, Wetherholt, R. Rodriguez, and a few pitchers pan out. Is that enough to get back to the playoffs, along with what they currently have/will hvae on the MLB roster—Herrera, Burleson, Donovan, etc.. Thanks big guy!!

Guerrero: I think the improvements from a system standpoint and the strides from individual players could make a window for regular postseason continental a possibility if the players coming up through the farm system can deliver upon arrival. Hopefully, we get clarity this offseason on how the Cardinals will approach the upcoming winter, as that, ideally, should provide some more info on what a timeline could look like. Just from how I’m looking at it, I think what could push that window back are the injuries that have hurt the pitching depth. Tink Hence experienced another injury-limited season and did not pitch past July 3. Tekoah Roby and Cooper Hjerpe both underwent Tommy John surgery this year. Quinn Mathews had his season put on pause because of a shoulder injury, but ended the year healthy. The health of the pitching pipeline needs to remain consistent for that potential window to become a reality.

Guerrero: Alright, I think that’s where we’ll wrap today’s chat. Thanks for the questions and comments. And, as always, thanks for your readership here at STL Today dot com/Post-Dispatch. The P-D’s Derrick Goold will have you covered through the final week of the season with coverage from San Francisco and Chicago. Keep it locked in here and in the pages of the Post-Dispatch for that coverage and for coverage on the Cardinals and their farm system as we head into the first offseason of the Chaim Bloom era. Take care, y’all. — Daniel Guerrero