For much of the summer, the Tigers looked all but certain to win the American League Central. But as the regular season nears its end, the Guardians have improbably surged back into the race.
• The Guardians found themselves as many as 15 1/2 games behind the Tigers earlier this season. If Cleveland can pull this off, it would be the largest deficit any team has overcome to win its division (since 1969) or its league pennant (pre-1969), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
• Cleveland was below .500 as recently as Sept. 4 — 139 games into its season. As you might expect, there haven’t been many clubs to make the playoffs after having a sub-.500 record that late (or later) into a season. Per Elias, just four have done it: the 2005 Padres (157 games), the 1973 Mets (153), the 2009 Twins (143) and the 2008 Dodgers (139).
• The Guardians were still 11 games behind the Tigers entering play on Sept. 5, which would easily clear the record for the largest September deficit a team has overcome to win its division or league pennant, per Elias. Cleveland has gone 15-2 since that point, picking up 10 games on Detroit in the process.
• Cleveland’s surge isn’t the only factor in the AL Central’s wild turn — it’s also taken a collapse from Detroit to make this comeback a possibility. The Tigers had MLB’s best record (59-34) through July 8, but they’ve gone 26-37 (.413) since July 9. In that time, only the Rockies, Twins and Angels have been worse than the Tigers, who have lost six straight and nine of 10.
• While reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal has continued to live up to the billing as Detroit’s ace, the rest of the club’s rotation has crumbled around him. Since the All-Star break, Tigers starters other than Skubal have recorded a collective 5.48 ERA over 48 starts. Skubal, who has dominated Cleveland to the tune of a 0.41 ERA with 32 K’s over 22 innings in 2025, is lined up to start Tuesday’s game.
• The Guardians have found an ace of their own in Gavin Williams, a 26-year-old righty in his third MLB season who is scheduled to start against Skubal on Tuesday. Despite some bouts of wildness, Williams has recorded a 2.15 ERA over 13 starts since July 6, the third best among qualifiers. On Aug. 6 against the Mets, he fell two outs shy of throwing Cleveland’s first no-hitter since Len Barker’s 1981 perfect game.
• The Guardians are in the midst of their best offensive month of the season, recording a 106 wRC+ (tied for eighth best in MLB) since Sept. 1. More than anything, though, pitching has carried the load for Cleveland in the second half.
We’ve already mentioned Williams’ contributions, but the Guardians’ rotation also has gotten a lift from rookies Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo, and their bullpen really hasn’t missed closer Emmanuel Clase, who has been on non-disciplinary paid leave since late July while MLB continues its sports betting investigation. Cleveland leads MLB with a 3.38 ERA since the All-Star break, including a stingy 2.32 mark in September.
• As usual, third baseman José Ramírez has been the Guardians’ offensive linchpin. He has four homers and an .898 OPS this month and just became the fourth player all time to produce multiple 30-40 seasons, joining Bobby (four times) and Barry Bonds (twice) and Alfonso Soriano (twice). Among the 15 Guardians hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2025, Ramírez (133 wRC+) is one of only three above league average, along with Kyle Manzardo (114) and Steven Kwan (102). The Tigers have nine such hitters, though all hasn’t been rosy lately for Detroit’s lineup (see below).
• Although they were Trade Deadline buyers, the Tigers neglected to address an offense that had been showing signs of regression in July after posting MLB’s fifth-highest scoring average (4.99 runs per game) with a 108 wRC+ (seventh best) through the end of June. Detroit acquired only one hitter — Rookie-level outfielder Josueth Quinonez — compared to six pitchers prior to the July 31 Deadline.
Since Aug. 1, the Tigers are 16th in scoring (4.59 runs per game) and wRC+ (99). Meanwhile, their pitching-focused Deadline plan has been a mixed bag — Kyle Finnegan (0.59 ERA) and Rafael Montero (3.10 ERA) have been solid additions to the club’s bullpen, but Paul Sewald got hurt after two appearances, Chris Paddack has a 6.12 ERA with the team and Charlie Morton (7.02 ERA) also struggled before being designated for assignment on Sunday.