With the federal government shutdown in effect as of early Wednesday, bettors on the prediction market Polymarket are wagering on its duration, and almost half expect it to last more than two weeks.
Why It Matters
The federal government shut down early Wednesday after the Senate failed to pass a funding bill Tuesday night, with back-to-back votes in which each party blocked the other’s stopgap plan. It’s the first shutdown since the 35-day lapse in 2018-19 during President Donald Trump’s first term.
Federal agencies have begun implementing contingency plans, scaling back services and furloughing thousands of employees until Congress reaches a deal. Pay for many federal workers will be delayed, with some employees required to work without pay. Essential programs such as Social Security will continue, though staffing shortages could slow service.
What To Know
Hundreds of people have bet on the duration of the government shutdown, with approximately half-a-million dollars bet on Polymarket, a platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events.
As of Wednesday morning, 47 percent of participants bet that the shutdown won’t end until October 15 or later. The duration of the shutdown depends on how likely congressional members can compromise and agree on a deal. A two-week shutdown can have lasting implications for research, programs, and public services.
Eight percent believe the shutdown will be much shorter, lasting a couple of days and ending between October 3 and 5. A similar share of people, 22 percent, bet it will end between October 6 and 9, and October 10 and 14, respectively.
The crux of the partisan disagreement centers on health care funding, particularly Democratic demands for extending Affordable Care Act tax credits and opposing cuts to Medicaid, a sticking point that Republicans have resisted, instead championing a “clean” short-term funding bill to prevent an immediate shutdown.
What People Are Saying
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in an X post on Tuesday night: “Democrats may have chosen to shut down the government tonight, but we can reopen it tomorrow. All it takes is five Democrats to join Republicans to pass the clean, nonpartisan funding bill that’s in front of us.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in an X post Tuesday night: “Republicans JUST VOTED DOWN our bill to avoid a government shutdown at midnight and address the health care needs of the American people. Republicans are plunging us into a government shutdown rather than fixing their health care crisis.”
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, previously told Newsweek on Tuesday: “An extended shutdown could bring serious consequences, as government offices remain shuttered and government resources remain unattainable. But allowing a shutdown to drag on can bring serious political backlash. In the recent past, leaders on both sides of the aisle have been unwilling to tolerate a lengthy shutdown.”
U.S. Air Force said in an X post on Wednesday morning: “Due to the government shutdown, this website is not being updated.”
Former Vice President Kamala Harris wrote in an October 1 X post: “President Trump and Congressional Republicans just shut down the government because they refused to stop your health care costs from rising. Let me be clear: Republicans are in charge of the White House, House, and Senate. This is their shutdown.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an X post Wednesday morning: “Democrats are holding the American government HOSTAGE so they can give FREE health care to ILLEGAL ALIENS and force $1.5 TRILLION in new partisan spending demands. WE CANNOT GIVE IN TO SUCH NONSENSE.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in an October 1 X post: “Democrats are fighting to protect your health care. Donald Trump and Republicans have shut down the government because they want to take your health care away.”
What Happens Next
A funding measure needs 60 votes to pass. On Tuesday, neither measure was able to garner enough votes. Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 45, and two independents caucus with the Democrats.