Copyright Newsweek
A crowded field of candidates is running in a competitive special election to fill the Texas Congressional seat previously held by the late Representative Sylvester Turner, a Democrat, next week. Grant Martin, a consultant for Democratic candidate Jolanda Jones, told Newsweek the “widely varied” polling won’t account for turnout—which is what will be critical in the final days of the race. A spokesperson for Democratic candidate Isaiah Martin told Newsweek the campaign is seeing “real, organic energy,” including “record-breaking grassroots fundraising for our campaign this quarter at $19 a person, 100 million impressions across social media in the last 30 days alone, and the most energized volunteer effort stepping up in every corner of the district.” Republican candidate Carmen María Montiel told Newsweek she is focused on “real conversations with residents” and that a recent independent poll of the race underrepresented Latino voters. Newsweek reached out to the leading campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters Turner, who also served as mayor of Houston, died in March, three months after he was sworn in as a new member of Congress. His death left the Houston-based Congressional seat vacant for months. That had political implications, extending the GOP’s tight majority in the House of Representatives. What to Know More than a dozen candidates will be on the ballot in the Texas special election. Leading candidates include Democrats Amanda Edwards, Jolanda Jones, Isaiah Martin, Christian Menefee; Republican Carmen Maria Montiel; and independent candidate George Foreman IV. The special election will be conducted using a “jungle primary” method, meaning each candidate will appear on a single ballot regardless of their party. If no candidate reaches an outright majority, the two candidates with the most support will advance to a runoff election. Polling on the race suggests it remains a bit volatile, and several candidates could have a chance at advancing to that runoff. Democrats typically have an advantage over Republicans in the district, where Turner won nearly 70 percent of the vote last year. Some polls do suggest Montiel could advance to the runoff against a Democrat. The latest independent poll of the race, conducted by the University of Houston, showed Menefee and Edwards as the leading candidates with 27 percent and 23 percent support, respectively. Jones followed at 15 percent, while 6 percent of respondents said they planned to back Montiel. Other candidates received less than 5 percent of the vote. Thirteen percent said they were still unsure of who they’d be supporting, the poll found. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from October 7 to October 11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that turnout will be “very low” and dominated by “the most engaged Democratic voters. “Those voters today are most concerned with what they see as overreach by Republicans resulting in restrictions on civil liberties and an erosion of civil rights,” he said. He said Menefee, Edwards and Jones are the frontrunners in the race but that it is “very likely to go to a runoff” due to the number of candidates in the race. “The most likely scenario is a runoff between Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards, although there is always an outside possibility that Jolanda Jones is able to leapfrog one of these two candidates (more likely Edwards than Menefee) and earn a spot in the runoff,” he said. Early polling suggested Montiel had an “outside chance” of advancing to the runoff, but the presence of four other Republicans with less support, as well as some Republicans having a “preference among the leading Democrats” suggests she has a more difficult path to the runoff, Jones said. A flurry of internal polls has also been reported. A Blueprint Polling survey, sponsored by Jones, showed her as the leading candidate with 25 percent support. Montiel followed with 19 percent in that poll. Menefee and Edwards had 14 percent and 10 percent support, respectively, reported Houston Public Media. The poll surveyed 454 people from September 8 to September 9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, a poll from Lake Research released by Menefee’s campaign showed him and Jones tied with 22 percent, while Edwards and Montiel both held 15 percent support. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters from August 20 to August 25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. An Edwards internal, conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies, showed her leading the race with 18 percent support. Montiel followed with 12 percent, Jones with 11 percent and Menefee with 10 percent. The poll surveyed 500 likely voters from July 20 to July 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. What People Are Saying Grant Martin, Jones’ consultant, told Newsweek: “The polling has varied widely in this race – because low-turnout special elections are inherently difficult to poll. Every top tier candidate, including Jolanda Jones, has a poll that shows them in the lead. At this point, it’s all about turnout, which polls do not reflect. We feel good about our positioning in this race.” The Martin campaign told Newsweek: “Voters here are looking for new leadership with spine, not politics-as-usual. That’s what we’re focused on, and that’s what’s going to get people out to vote, not horse-race numbers. Polls have been wrong before, and we’re going to surprise a lot of people come Election Day, as we have throughout this campaign.” Carmen María Montiel told Newsweek: “The University of Houston poll does not reflect the true makeup or priorities of District 18. Latino voters, nearly half of our district, were largely underrepresented, which skews the results. My campaign is focused on real conversations with residents about the issues that matter most: the economy, public safety, and opportunity. Houston deserves leadership that truly listens and delivers, leadership grounded in Faith, Family, Freedom and Prosperity.” What Happens Next Candidates will spend the next few days making their final message to voters in the district. Election Day is set for November 4, 2025.
