By Anurag Kumar

Copyright timesnownews

New Delhi: Gold’s blistering rally in 2025 shows little sign of cooling, with global investment bank Goldman Sachs projecting that the precious metal could climb to $4,900 per troy ounce by December 2026. The surge, analysts say, will continue to be fuelled by central bank buying, investor demand through ETFs, and expectations of interest rate cuts, making gold an increasingly attractive safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical turbulence. In a note published Monday, Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said most of the upside will come from emerging market central banks, which “are likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold.” They added that with the US Federal Reserve expected to cut benchmark rates by a full percentage point by mid-2026, Western ETF holdings are also set to rise. Also Read: Gold Hits Record Rs 1,20,900 – Is Diwali The Best Time to Buy? Gold prices breached the $4,000 per ounce milestone for the first time ever on Wednesday, underscoring the strength of the rally. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,002.53 per ounce in early trade, while US gold futures for December delivery climbed to $4,025 per ounce. Traditionally considered a store of value in times of crisis, gold has surged 52% so far in 2025, following a 27% gain in 2024. Analysts attribute the rally to a potent mix of factors — from rate cut expectations and political instability to robust central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and a weakening dollar. The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its seventh day, has intensified uncertainty by delaying key economic data releases, forcing investors to rely on alternative indicators to predict the Fed’s next moves. Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut this month and another similar cut in December. Political turmoil in France and Japan has further amplified demand for gold, while a growing “fear of missing out” is drawing even more investors into the rally. Gold Fever Spreads to India The global surge has spilled over into the Indian market as well. Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) jumped Rs 651 to a record Rs 1,20,900 per 10 grams on Tuesday, with the February 2026 contract rising to Rs 1,22,231 per 10 grams. “Gold prices rose to an all-time high on US economic and political uncertainties and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,” said Manav Modi, Analyst – Precious Metal Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Should You Buy Before Diwali? With prices soaring, many investors are asking whether now is the right time to enter the market — and experts suggest buying sooner rather than later. Kirit Bhansali, Chairman of GJEPC, told ET Now Swadesh that investors should consider making their gold purchases before Diwali. “Given the current market conditions and ongoing geopolitical pressures, a major price correction seems unlikely. Gold prices may continue rising month-on-month, which could affect consumer budgets,” he said. With central bank demand rising, interest rates expected to fall, and geopolitical risks mounting, analysts believe the gold rally still has considerable room to run, setting the stage for potentially record-breaking highs over the next 12 to 18 months. Get Latest News live on Times Now along with Breaking News and Top Headlines from Business, Companies and around the world.