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Several recent polls show that California Governor Gavin Newsom’s redistricting push, codified in Proposition 50, may pass at the ballot box on November 4. Why It Matters State legislators’ push for mid-cycle redistricting is part of a broader national battle over congressional maps, following efforts in Republican-led Texas, where GOP lawmakers passed a new map backed by President Donald Trump that could help Republicans gain five seats in the House. GOP legislators in Missouri have also pushed through a new map advantageous to Republicans. Democrats in California, led by Newsom, responded with their own proposed map aimed at increasing their chances in five districts, which will go to vote next week as Proposition 50. A coalition of Democratic state leaders, including Senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff as well as state organizations, have backed the proposal. On Tuesday, Maryland state Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, said the party will not push through a new map, arguing that the risks as “too high.” The mid-decade redistricting proposals are being pushed without new Census data and are an effort for each party to secure more seats in Congress during the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans hold a 219-213 majority in the House, making every seat pivotal in determining control. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference on August 14, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) What Polls Show About Proposition 50 A survey of 1,707 adults October 7-14 found that 56 percent of likely voters would support Proposition 50, with 43 percent voting against it. The proposition “authorizes temporary changes to congressional district maps in response to Texas’ partisan redistricting.” The poll, which was conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, found that of those who support Proposition 50, about 70 percent believe the outcome is very important to them. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus of 3 percentage points. A smaller, more recent Emerson College Polling survey of 900 likely California voters surveyed October 20-21 found that 57 percent said they would support passing the proposition, while 37 percent oppose it. Among those who indicate they will vote “yes” on the measure, 89 percent believe it is a good idea, while among those who plan to vote against it, 93 percent say it is a bad idea. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.19 percentage points. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 16-21 found that 62 percent of participants are going to vote in support of the measure and 38 percent against. The survey of 1,504 registered voters found that 75 percent of those voting “yes” for the proposition are doing so to oppose Trump. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. What Betting Markets Show About Proposition 50 Thousands of dollars have been wagered on the prediction market Polymarket over the potential outcome of the proposal. Users on the platform can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events. As of Wednesday, people have bet almost $300,000 on the question “California redistricting referendum passes?” The market shows the proposition has a 97 percent chance of passing, according to bettors. Kalshi shows a similar result, although less money has been bet on it at about $156,000. It shows a 95 percent chance of the proposition passing. What People Are Saying California Governor Gavin Newsom, on X on Tuesday: “We raised $38 million from over 1.2 million contributions from all 50 states. This isn’t just about Prop 50. It’s a movement to defend our democracy. Every small dollar we raise will now go to helping other states end the GOP’s election rigging. It’s time to bring Prop 50 across the finish line and stop Trump in his tracks nationwide.” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, on October 24: “With less than two weeks until the California special election for Proposition 50, the measure looks likely to pass, with results again outside the poll’s margin of error. Certain demographic groups that were hesitant to support the measure last month have come around to support Prop. 50, such as Black voters, whose support increased from 45% to 71%.” Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican candidate for California governor, in a statement on X on September 22: “Prop 50 isn’t about fairness, it’s about power. Say NO to Prop 50.” Former President Barack Obama, on X on October 14: “California, this November 4th, the whole country is counting on you. Prop 50 puts our elections back on a level playing field, preserves independent redistricting over the long term, and lets the people decide. So return your ballot today. Vote ...
