Tropical Depression 7 emerged in the Central Tropical Atlantic Wednesday morning as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms continued to develop around an area of low pressure just about in the middle of the ocean, about 1,100 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The tropical depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour.
The tropical system is moving to the west at 10 to 15 miles per hour and is expected to strengthen further into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, making it the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Most models have this system capping out at tropical storm strength with a low chance of reaching hurricane status. The Bermuda High looks to shift to the east over the next week, which will also help recurve the storm out to sea and avoid any U.S. impacts.
Sea surface temperatures continue to run extremely warm and well above average across the central and eastern portions of the Tropical Atlantic, but stable, dry air will make it a challenge for soon-to-be Gabrielle to fully tap into the available moisture the ocean holds.
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This storm may lay the tracks for a revival of the hurricane season after an extensive lull through the historic date of peak activity, Sept. 10. It was the first time since 2016 that there was no active tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin during the height of hurricane season. But keep in mind, 2016 still went on to produce seven more tropical storms before the season wrapped on Nov. 30.
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September and October spawn the most tropical storms and hurricanes as the oceans reach their peak heating of the season, and the atmosphere becomes more unstable, with the weather pattern varying with the decline of sunlight.
Most meteorologists are still calling for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with this year expected to follow a similar “back-loaded” season to last year, in which 13 named storms formed after the peak, mid-September. This included seven hurricanes, including four that intensified to a major, Category 3 hurricane or higher.
Also, the National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory on another area of interest — a tropical wave off Africa’s west coast that should enter an environment for gradual development in the week. This potential system currently holds a 20 percent chance of tropical formation, according to the hurricane center.
Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.